Work to clear mines from waters around Oman under US President Donald Trump’s Project Freedom has raised hopes that ships will safely travel through the Strait of Hormuz if a ceasefire agreement with Iran holds, experts have told The National.
It was “highly likely”, they said, that the US had cleared the strait of between 10 and 100 mines during the 48 hours it opened to escort at least two American-registered cargo vessels out of the Arabian Gulf.
But former Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe said that any further mine laying after Project Freedom was paused could be achieved in “just a few days if you weren’t getting shot at” along the passage closest to Oman.
“They need to be shown to be safe, and the quickest way would be to clear the southern old TSS (Traffic Separation Scheme) route and make that the inbound passage and the inshore Omani route the outbound route," he said. "That would work.”
Speaking before Washington abruptly halted Project Freedom, naval experts said the prospect of getting large numbers of merchant ships safely through the narrow channel remained slim, as the US did not have enough forces available to deter the Iranian threat.
In the past few weeks, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy is understood to have placed between 10 and 100 mines in the strait, each of which will be triggered by a ship’s acoustic signal, presenting a significant threat.
But at least two US-registered containers made it through the strait in recent days, suggesting the area had been swept of mines.
“Clearly, the US fleet was able to ensure that the ships weren't going to hit the mines, which suggests that it is highly likely the US had been able to deploy some mine-countermeasure vehicles, possibly autonomous,” said Dr Lynette Nusbacher, a former British military intelligence officer.
Mr Sharpe, who has sailed warships through the strait, agreed that the most important first step for safe passage would have been to deploy remotely operated minesweepers.
“These will be drone boats that will detonate Iran’s influence mines that are not set off not by contact, but by a ship’s magnetic or acoustic signature,” he said. “So, there's a good chance that America has cleared that passage.”
Convoy approach
If Project Freedom were to restart, experts said small convoys of about six container ships, accompanied by two Arleigh Burke missile destroyers supported by Apache helicopters and FA-18 Hornet fighters, could test Iran’s blockade, albeit at great risk.
The ships would take the Oman TSS lane, with one destroyer on the inside, checking for Iranian fast boats hidden in the coves of the Musandam Peninsula, and the other on the Iran side fending off missile attacks.
Using Operation Earnest Will during the Tanker Wars of the late 1980s as a guide, eight warships would be needed to escort about 11 merchant vessels. Even three carrier strike groups in the Middle East did not appear to be enough to provide larger escort capability.
“Furthermore, the loss of an Arleigh Burke, that would be the end of it, America would chicken out at the point,” said Mr Sharpe, who also added that Project Freedom was always “unsustainable”.
Dr Nusbacher argued that given the time it would take a supertanker to cross the strait – between 12 and 24 hours – an escorting air-defence ship would probably have exhausted its inventory of missiles before safety was reached.
“You can't just keep on shooting forever and if you make a modern warship vulnerable in a narrow strait of water, you’re going to lose it and both the US and Nato know that that’s why they're not doing it,” she said.
She suggested the only military option to guarantee safety was to send a land force into Iran “denying the drone and anti-ship cruise missiles range of the strait – but nobody's going to do that”.
To demonstrate intent, Dr Nusbacher said, the US fleet would have to get a very large crude carrier (VLCC) through under American protection. “And given a VLCC is slow moving, this would present significant challenges,” she added.
Shipping distress
Before the White House suspension of Project Freedom, shipping companies had asked for greater detail on protection the US could offer before they risked sailing vessels through the strait.
“What the military think is feasible operationally might not be for a merchant ship,” said John Stawpert of the International Chamber of Shipping, that represents 80 per cent of the global industry.
“We need much more dialogue with military planners. We need more detail and information on how the US proposes how practically this will work before you'll see an uptake by shipping companies.”
The Baltic and International Maritime Council, which represents shipowners and brokers, said it had received “only very limited information”.
