Ocean Drive in South Beach as Hurricane Irma arrives at south Florida, in Miami Beach, Florida. Markets may be set for turbulence. Carlos Barria/ Reuters
Ocean Drive in South Beach as Hurricane Irma arrives at south Florida, in Miami Beach, Florida. Markets may be set for turbulence. Carlos Barria/ Reuters

Stormy global situation sets scene for markets



After a week that began with talk of nuclear war and ended with Hurricane Irma, investors are not surprisingly struggling to deal with the deluge of risks that are now confronting them on an almost daily basis, and to price them correctly.

With the summer behind us but with only 10 days of September gone, the challenge of anticipating and calibrating the key factors that will define where markets go through the rest of this year is already immense.  Geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula and natural disasters across large areas of United States and the Caribbean may be at the extreme ends of the scale in terms of what markets usually think about, but it is perhaps no exaggeration to say that the most difficult challenge they face today is in making sense of events in Washington DC and what they will mean for fiscal policy, growth and interest rates.

Perhaps out of the wish to prioritise funds for dealing with the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey, the US president Donald Trump made a surprise intervention into the debt ceiling debate by agreeing to a Democratic Party proposal to extend the US$19.8 trillion debt limit for three months, against the wishes of his own Republican Party and overriding his own Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchen. In the process he has probably created more confusion and uncertainty than he has alleviated, and has aggravated existing concerns about his suitability to be in the White House.

While the avoidance of debt cliff at the end of this month might normally be seen as something to be welcomed, its mere postponement for just three months to the year-end is arguably a much worse scenario for markets and for the economy. Markets would rather get the issue over with now than have it hanging around for the rest of the year. It will only extend the period of uncertainty among investors, corporations and consumers; it will complicate the process of delivering meaningful tax reform; and it will reduce the chances of other key legislation being achieved this year and perhaps even next.

All of this will cast renewed doubt on the outlook for the economy, which also now has severe hurricane damage to deal with, and which will in turn make the job of the Fed much harder when it comes to setting an appropriate level for interest rates. This job had already gotten more complicated by the departure of senior Fed officials, including now its vice chair Stanley Fischer.

_______________

Read more:

US Fed vice chairman steps down early

Time for some crash protection as US stocks hit record overvaluation

_______________

Furthermore, it will probably make worse the already deteriorating relationship between Mr Trump and his own Republican Party, and will cast renewed doubt on his ability to withstand the findings of the Russia investigation which looks set to come to a head in 2018. Overlaying all of this with enormous geopolitical tensions and grave ecological challenges makes the job of pricing these risks very difficult.

With so much noise and uncertainty emanating from the US and especially Washington, it was probably a relief towards the end of week for the markets to be able to focus on a more dependable institution such as the European Central Bank (ECB). Monetary policy setting by the ECB is seldom exciting, and this time it did not have to be as the markets already had enough excitement from events elsewhere. In the event the ECB president Mario Draghi said very little beyond what was known already or was guessed at; that the ECB will set out its plans to end its €60 billion (Dh290.99bn) per month QE stimulus programme next month, and that the euro-zone economy is gathering strength. A nod was made to the problems posed by a strong euro, with a slightly downgraded inflation outlook, but the fact that the ECB appears to be in control of its own destiny with an orderly tapering of QE purchases anticipated was sufficient for the euro to rally.

However, it was the contrast with the uncertainty in the US that was probably the real reason for EUR/USD’s positive response, as the dollar’s weakness is not just a euro phenomenon. EUR/USD strength has more to do with US yields going down, causing broad dollar selling, rather than anything that Mr Draghi said or did not say about monetary policy. And until the US picture becomes less noisy, chaotic and confused it is hard to imagine that the dollar’s predicament is going to change anytime soon.

Tim Fox is Chief Economist and Head of Research at Emirates NBD

Thank You for Banking with Us

Director: Laila Abbas

Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum

Rating: 4/5

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
IPL 2018 FINAL

Sunrisers Hyderabad 178-6 (20 ovs)
Chennai Super Kings 181-2 (18.3 ovs)

Chennai win by eight wickets

World Cricket League Division 2

In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.

UAE fixtures

Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final

Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro
Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books 

The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE

Company: Bidzi

● Started: 2024

● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid

● Based: Dubai, UAE

● Industry: M&A

● Funding size: Bootstrapped

● No of employees: Nine

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The Bio

Name: Lynn Davison

Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi

Children: She has one son, Casey, 28

Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK

Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho

Favourite Author: CJ Sansom

Favourite holiday destination: Bali

Favourite food: A Sunday roast

Ain Dubai in numbers

126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure

1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch

16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.

9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.

5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place

192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.

The%20Iron%20Claw
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sean%20Durkin%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zac%20Efron%2C%20Jeremy%20Allen%20White%2C%20Harris%20Dickinson%2C%20Maura%20Tierney%2C%20Holt%20McCallany%2C%20Lily%20James%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog

Fatima Al Darmaki is an Emirati widow with three children

She has received 46 certificates of appreciation and excellence throughout her career

She won the 'ideal mother' category at the Minister of Interior Awards for Excellence

Her favourite food is Harees, a slow-cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled wheat berries mixed with chicken

The Book of Collateral Damage

Sinan Antoon

(Yale University Press)

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The bio:

Favourite film:

Declan: It was The Commitments but now it’s Bohemian Rhapsody.

Heidi: The Long Kiss Goodnight.

Favourite holiday destination:

Declan: Las Vegas but I also love getting home to Ireland and seeing everyone back home.

Heidi: Australia but my dream destination would be to go to Cuba.

Favourite pastime:

Declan: I love brunching and socializing. Just basically having the craic.

Heidi: Paddleboarding and swimming.

Personal motto:

Declan: Take chances.

Heidi: Live, love, laugh and have no regrets.

 


Energy This Week

Expert analysis on oil & gas renewables and clean energy

      By signing up, I agree to The National's privacy policy
      Energy This Week