The Iran nuclear deal, if successfully implemented, lies at the heart of Barack Obama’s vision for a new relationship between the United States and the Middle East, one that could transform the strategic order that has guided the region since the end of the Cold War.
Obama came into office with the goal of “right-sizing” the US posture in the region after his predecessor’s disastrous attempt to impose a democratic order in Iraq through regime change and occupation. The Iraq war led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, sectarian bloodletting, majoritarian rule, unprecedented Iranian influence and, of course, the seeds that would grow into today’s biggest global security threat – ISIL.
Rather than continue to drain US coffers in Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama sought to pursue a “pivot” to East Asia, where rival China was stamping its dominance, and away from the high costs and low returns of an overstretched role in the Middle East.
The quickly declining American reliance on Gulf oil imports was another important factor in the White House’s strategic assessment. The failures of the Arab Spring uprisings, too, played a role. The US administration differed sharply with its traditional allies in the Gulf and Israel over the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, protest movements elsewhere in the region, societal reform and the role of Islamists in politics.
For the first time, the US and its Arab allies’ perceived interests were at odds. A divergence in values was even more pronounced. As a result, Washington’s ability to leverage its security commitments to influence their policies faltered as it drifted away from its old allies’ strategic outlook.
Obama bet that the US could best begin to rebalance itself in the Middle East by forging a deal with Iran over its disputed nuclear programme that would block its path to the bomb – the primary global security threat emanating from the region – and forestall a possible regional war.
The lifting of sanctions, in exchange, would begin integrating Iran for the first time since 1979 into the regional order – an order whose organising principle under the US had been to contain Tehran.
Obama’s strategic rationale held that a non-nuclear Iran would pose less of a threat to US allies and that an Iran integrated into the region would create a stabilising balance of power as well as economic incentives for Tehran and its chief rivals in the Gulf to begin the process of rapprochement.
This potential upending of the traditional order underwritten by the US was, and remains, deeply unsettling for Washington’s allies who believe that this is naive at best and an abandonment at the worst.
After a July deal between Iran and world powers put unprecedented limits on Tehran’s ability to enrich for over a decade, Iran will receive incremental sanctions relief during the implementation phase expected to begin in the new year.
The US plans to keep a sizable military presence in the Gulf to support its pared down core interests: protect allies from external threats like Iran, secure the flow of oil, carry out counter-terrorism operations and help contain ISIL. The US now expects its Gulf allies to carry much more of the load of these tasks themselves.
In the longer term, a political resolution to the war in Syria, the shared threat of ISIL and growing economic links may ultimately lead to a modus vivendi between the Gulf states and Iran, but that is far from certain and perhaps unlikely.
Obama’s successor may deliver on campaign promises to be more aggressive in the fight against ISIL in Iraq and Syria. But if the Iran deal successfully comes into effect, the key question looming over the next president’s Middle East policy will be whether they see the region and the American place in it the same way as Obama or whether they will revert to a more involved role.
Taimur Khan is a foreign correspondent at The National.
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Honeymoonish
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Profile of Tamatem
Date started: March 2013
Founder: Hussam Hammo
Based: Amman, Jordan
Employees: 55
Funding: $6m
Funders: Wamda Capital, Modern Electronics (part of Al Falaisah Group) and North Base Media
RESULTS
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner: Najem Al Rwasi, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Fandim, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Harbh, Pat Cosgrave, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Wakeel W’Rsan, Richard Mullen, Jaci Wickham
4pm: Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jawaal, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
4.30pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup (TB) Dh200,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
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'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
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The specs: 2017 Maserati Quattroporte
Price, base / as tested Dh389,000 / Dh559,000
Engine 3.0L twin-turbo V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 530hp @ 6,800rpm
Torque 650Nm @ 2,000 rpm
Fuel economy, combined 10.7L / 100km
Temple numbers
Expected completion: 2022
Height: 24 meters
Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people
Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people
First floor main Prayer Hall: 465 square metres to hold 1,500 people at a time
First floor terrace areas: 2,30 square metres
Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres
Structure includes two basements, ground and first floor
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
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In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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