The threat of a US government shutdown has become common in a divided Washington. The clock is again ticking for Congress to pass a short-term government funding measure to stave off a shutdown of large portions of the federal government.
Speaker Mike Johnson, who leads the majority Republican Party in the House of Representatives, is struggling to gain support for a continuing resolution to keep agencies open over the Christmas holiday, as president-elect Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk air fierce opposition.
News reports say Mr Trump supports Mr Johnson's inclusion of aid for farmers and relief for natural disaster survivors, but he led a tirade against Republicans to "get smart and tough" in stripping Democratic priorities out of the bill.
Mr Trump especially wants to "terminate or substantially extend" the debt ceiling, which is a difficult challenge for Mr Johnson to handle, along with Republicans who have long voted against debt limit increases.
What happens if the US government shuts down?
Should Congress fail to fund the government, federal agencies will be required to halt all non-essential operations. Essential functions will continue. This will affect a range of activities, from national parks to passport applications.
Some federal employees will also be told to not report to work. More than 800,000 federal employees were furloughed during the 2013 shutdown, as explained by the Office of Management and Budget. The furloughs would lead to prolonged waiting times on passport applications and small business loans.
Most federal buildings and attractions – such as the Smithsonian museums in Washington – would be closed. National parks would be open, but travelling to one would come with an increased risk as the National Park Service would not be able to maintain visitor centres, rest rooms and roads.
The White House said a shutdown would "hurt hardworking Americans and create instability across the country".
President Joe Biden's administration said that the incoming Trump government is threatening not to support "communities recovering from disasters, farmers, ranchers, and community health centres".
"Triggering a damaging government shutdown would hurt families who are gathering to meet with their loved ones and endanger the basic services Americans from veterans to Social Security recipients rely on," the White House said.
How would a shutdown affect the economy?
A shutdown could also affect the US economy and the nation's credit rating, according to Moody's review of past similar situations.
“A shutdown would be credit-negative for the US sovereign,” credit ratings agency Moody's said to clients.
A government-wide shutdown would reduce economic growth by about 0.15 percentage points for each week it lasts, Goldman Sachs says.
How many times has the government shut down?
The federal government has shut down 21 times over the past five decades. The most recent shutdown was also the longest.
From December 2018 to January 2019, former president Donald Trump forced a government shutdown to receive funding for the US-Mexico border wall. That ended after 35 days without any such funding.
It was one of three shutdowns to have happened during Mr Trump's term. The first lasted for three days, and the second only for a few hours.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
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Engine: 6.2-litre V8
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Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder MHEV
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