How do Republican candidates view the Middle East and US foreign policy?

Foreign policy rarely dominates electoral campaigns

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis gives a speech during a conference at the Museum of Tolerance in Jerusalem in April this year. Getty

Ron DeSantis, the man thought to pose the biggest threat to Donald Trump as he seeks the Republican nomination for president, officially entered the 2024 race on Wednesday.

The field is quickly growing more crowded, with Senator Tim Scott announcing his candidacy on Monday.

Other contenders include Mr Trump's former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, and former vice president Mike Pence is widely expected to run.

Traditionally, US elections have centred on “kitchen table” domestic policy issues such as taxes, health care and education.

But some experts say Americans can expect foreign policy to play a more prominent role in 2024.

Victoria Coates, senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation's Margaret Thatcher Centre for Freedom, said the prevalence of national security issues this primary season will make for an “unusual race”.

One key issue is energy, and Ms Coates believes is an area in which “there is real room for vision” from Republican candidates on Middle East foreign policy.

“Anyone who is serious about energy policy realises they have to be serious about the Middle East,” she told The National.

“The engagement we traditionally would have sought from the Gulf and from the region, generally, is increased energy supply. That's not our goal now, we're one of the big three along with Saudi [Arabia] and Russia.

“So it's not simply a question of asking for more barrels per day to keep prices under control, which appears to be the approach of [the President Joe] Biden administration, that seems to be their only interest. But there's a real potential for a more visionary candidate who understands the strengths in the Gulf.”

Brian Katulis, senior fellow and vice president of policy at Washington's Middle East Institute, said any energy debate would be determined largely by the price of petrol next year.

“If consumers see inflation as a big problem heading into next year's polls, and they see gas prices as being a challenge for them, then you might see some Republican candidates trying to blame Biden for not having stable, smooth relations with some of these [Middle East] countries,” Mr Katulis told The National.

But even that, he argues, would rank low on the election totem pole.

“If a Republicans came out and basically said we should embrace the region a bit more, and we would have lower oil prices, it may not be all that compelling to have an argument for people, because they don't understand the dynamics of global energy markets,” he added.

US outlet Politico, citing sources close to Mr DeSantis, said he “is still soaking in information” and reading up on national security issues, noting he does not yet have a circle of foreign policy advisers.

Mr Katulis argued that, like that of Mr Trump, Mr DeSantis's regional foreign policy appears “confusing”.

“It's hard to see any clear division, or even a clear plan coming from of the Republican Party, whether it's Trump or DeSantis, on the Middle East,” he said.

But there are some signals from Mr DeSantis, who recently made a trip to Israel.

Mr Katulis said a speech by the Florida Governor in Jerusalem showed he is “pro-Israel from a very right-wing perspective”, despite Gallup polling showing Americans are pivoting away from those views.

“He walks and talks the talk that is expected from the far right in Israel, and then the far right of the GOP, but it's nowhere close to where mainstream US voter views are,” Mr Katulis added.

Having served in Iraq during his time as a Navy lawyer, Mr DeSantis has been a sharp critic of Iran and has advocated supporting the US relationship with its Kurdish regional allies.

While serving as a congressman in 2017, Mr DeSantis held a press conference with veterans of the Iraq War demanding that the US government “stand by the Kurds” to build strength against Tehran.

Mr Trump made the decision in 2019 to redeploy US forces from the Syrian-Turkish border, a move his critics characterised as “a shameful betrayal” of America’s Kurdish partners in the fight against ISIS.

Mr Katulis said it was among a series of Trump decisions that gave “mixed signals” on regional engagement.

Ms Coates, on the other hand, said Mr Trump “demonstrated that it is possible to engage with the region, but not necessarily promote an additional military adventure”.

She predicts the foreign policy issue that will dominate the Republican primary will be China, where relative cohesion exists across the conservative party.

The Biden administration has continued a “long goodbye” from the Middle East and a “pivot to Asia” in its defence priorities, centred on countering China and US disengagement in the Middle East region.

The administration's defence budget proposal for fiscal year 2024 included $9.1 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which is geared towards boosting Washington's regional competitiveness against Beijing, and $37.7 billion for modernising US nuclear capabilities.

Ms Coates said the Republicans running for president would take a tougher, “less conciliatory” stance towards Beijing, and would prioritise more engagement in the Middle East.

Pointing to the China-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran earlier this year, she said: “If the Saudis felt like they had a choice, and there was an American, strong presence and leadership on offer, they would have much preferred to have the Americans broker a deal like that.”

“But right now, that's just not on offer.”

Mr Katulis emphasised that this debate is unlikely to reach most American voters.

“The American public to a large extent, has moved on in the Middle East … you had a blip with the rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq that drew us back in but by and large, ordinary American voters are pretty happy that we've sort of winnowed down our presence in the region,” he said.