US elections: remaining swing states hold key to victory

Delayed vote counting in the 'blue wall' will be critical

Loretta Oakes of Las Vegas reacts during a Republican watch party at the South Point Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. EPA

A supporter of US President Donald Trump taunts Biden Supporters in Black Lives Matter Plaza near the White House in Washington, DC. EPA

A supporter shows his Donald Trump t-shirt at a Republican watch party at Huron Vally Guns in New Hudson, Michigan. AFP

Two-year-old Noah Davenport of Granby, Colorado, waits for his mother to cast her ballot at the Granby Town Hall. AFP

A person wearing a mask resembling U.S. President Donald Trump hands out flyers at Black Lives Matter Plaza during the 2020 Presidential election in Washington, D.C. Bloomberg

A note left behind on the podium by U.S. President Donald Trump reads "Won Texas" after the president reacted to early results from the 2020. Reuters

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden visits The Warehouse for teens by teens in Wilmington, Delaware. AFP

Election judges verify and count ballots at the Denver Elections Division building in Denver, Colorado. AFP

A voter is assisted by a polling station worker at a polling location inside Emerick Elementary School in Purcellville, Virginia. EPA

A woman casts her ballot in the 2020 general election inside the Basset Place Mall in El Paso, Texas. AFP

Restaurants and shops downtown are boarded up in preparation for election night unrest on election day in Denver, Colorado. AFP

Voters cast their ballots at the Indian Creek Fire Station 4 in Miami, Florida. AFP

US President Donald Trump visits his campaign headquarters in Arlington, Virginia. AFP

Tom Tillotson drops voters ballots into the ballot box at the Hale House at the historic Balsams Resort during midnight voting as part of the first ballots cast in the United States Presidential Election in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. AFP

Supporters of the Democratic party hold signs outside the Miami-Dade County Election Department in Miami, Florida. AFP

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks to supporters in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. AFP

A poll worker is silhouetted from a stained glass window as voters fill out their ballots in a polling station at the San Francisco Columbarium & Funeral Home in San Francisco, California. AFP

Karrihanna Stone, age 5, waits while her mother, Cashonda Davis casts her vote at a polling location at the Zelma Watson George Community Center in Cleveland Ohio. EPA

Poll workers disinfect each other other after a voter with coronavirus disease dropped off her ballot curbside to prevent the spread of the virus in St. Louis, Missouri, US. Reuters

The US election contest became a tighter race on Wednesday as early voting counts, minus absentee ballots, suggested that Republican President Donald Trump and his Democrat challenger, Joe Biden, had each won critically important states.

Mr Biden stunned observers by winning long-time Republican stronghold Arizona, but Mr Trump’s supporters came out in force in traditional “red states” including Kansas and Texas, the latter being a crucial swing state.

Florida was another substantial prize for Mr Trump with 29 electoral votes, while Ohio and Iowa also went to Mr Trump.

Ohio and Iowa, among the so-called “rust belt” states, had narrowly gone to the Democrats in 2012, but flipped to Mr Trump in 2016 after the president promised more jobs in industry, which has declined across the region.

The results took the electoral college votes to 238 for Mr Biden and 213 for Mr Trump, who are now contesting the remaining 87 votes to reach the 270 required to win the White House.

But the president’s swing state victories, so far, do not mean his second term is safe because in recent years, remaining “battleground states” – also sometimes called “purple states,” have been a tight contest.

On the second day of vote counting, the race may now be down to four, perhaps five critical states.

This was the view of political scientist Brian Klaas.

“Ok, so as far as I see it, there are now four states in play: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Biden needs to win two of them. If he wins at least two of the four, he's president. If he loses three or four of them, Trump wins," Mr Klaas wrote on Twitter.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have all faced delays counting ballots, as they are not permitted under state law to open and scan early ballots before election day, something usually done in other states.

Often called “the blue wall” due to long periods of Democrat control, the political balance in these states in recent years has been more uncertain.

Governor Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania tweeted early on Wednesday morning that a million ballots remained uncounted, the most of all remaining states.

Vote counting in these states is expected to stretch well into Wednesday.

In Georgia, where Mr Trump was leading Joe Biden by about 300,000 votes, a water pipe burst in a ballot counting centre, delaying the count of absentee ballots, although no machinery or votes were damaged, according to a spokesperson for Fulton Country, where the incident occurred.

Mr Biden therefore, may still be in with a chance in the so-called “Peach State”.

Georgia will be crucial for the Biden campaign, according to political scientist Cliston Brown.

“Right now, it looks to me like Biden’s likeliest path to a win, in order of likelihood, is Nevada-Georgia-Wisconsin,” , he tweeted on Wednesday.

North Carolina is also being hotly contested, with polling extended due to what the State Board of Elections referred to as interruptions to polling.

Michigan, which had been a stronghold for the Democrats between 1992 and 2012 before sliding decisively toward Republican control during the 2016 general election, will also be a tight contest.

Pennsylvania, another critical swing state, has seen both campaigns spend significant sums, with Mr Biden attempting to win over black American voters.

In Wisconsin, Mr Trump was the first Republican candidate to win the state since 1984, so he may face a tougher battle there.

Typifying the close contest, each candidate had about 1.5 million votes early on Wednesday.