US and Iran send mixed signals on anniversary of Qassem Suleimani's death

The US has withdrawn the aircraft carrier 'USS Nimitz' as Iranian generals insist 'revenge is coming'

The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz transits the Arabian Sea. US Navy via AP

Iran-backed elements of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) sent mixed messages about their intent to attack US personnel in Iraq, on the anniversary of the death of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani and the PMFs’ de facto head, Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis.

Both men were killed in a US drone strike near Baghdad airport on January 3, 2020, after several months of escalating violence that led to the death of a US contractor.

The PMF statements follow widespread fears that Iran would use the militias to launch a series of revenge attacks on US forces. Iran and its proxy groups have long promised to strike US forces again in retaliation for Suleimani’s death, despite launching a barrage of ballistic missiles at US bases in Iraq on January 7.

Despite that attack – which nearly led to war – the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Gen Hossein Salami recently promised a "hard revenge" was coming for US forces.

On Sunday, the most notorious PMF group Kataib Hezbollah issued a statement on Twitter through its spokesman Ali Al Askari. "We will not enter today into the embassy of evil, and we will not overthrow this [Iraqi] government, and there is still plenty of time," Mr Al Askari said, according to the Flashpoint intelligence consultancy.

Other militias, which Iraq security analyst Michael Knights assesses are backed by Iran, have continued non-fatal attacks on US forces, targeting logistics convoys.

In a remark aimed at belittling US-allied Iraqi soldiers, militia group Ashab Al Kahf warned the "children" of the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service that they must "not accompany the convoys of the American occupier", suggesting more attacks are imminent.

In a sign of how close Iraq could be to seeing a US-Iran clash on its soil, departing US President Donald Trump warned Iran-backed groups on December 31 that in the event of a US casualty, "Iran will be held fully responsible".

Despite this warning, the US withdrew the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz from the Arabian Gulf on Friday. According to The New York Times, which quoted unnamed US officials, the ship's relocation was intended to send a "de-escalatory" signal to Tehran.

But the vessel's relocation could also send a misleading message, if Iran decides to launch a revenge operation.

IRGC's Maj Gen Yahya Safavi said on Saturday that his forces could turn a US carrier "into a submarine." Despite this confidence, the US has probably retained other options to defend itself in the region: on December 21, the US Navy announced that the submarine USS Georgia transited the Strait of Hormuz. The submarine is equipped with 154 cruise missiles.

According to aviation monitoring service Intel Air and Sea, the US was also flying RC-135 refuelling aircraft over Iraq early on Sunday, suggesting Washington is retaining the ability to launch air strikes, despite the departure of the USS Nimitz.