MINSK // Guns would fall silent, heavy weapons would pull back from the front and Ukraine would trade a broad autonomy for the east to get back control of its Russian border by the end of 2015 under a peace deal hammered out on Thursday in all-night negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany.
The deal was full of potential pitfalls that could derail its implementation, however. In announcing the plan, Russia and Ukraine differed over what exactly they had agreed to in the marathon 16-hour talks, including the status of Debaltseve, a key town now under rebel siege.
Russian president Vladimir Putin told reporters that the agreement envisages a ceasefire beginning Sunday as well as a special status for Ukraine’s separatist regions and provisions to address border concerns and humanitarian issues.
Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko said there was no agreement on any autonomy or federalisation for eastern Ukraine, a longtime demand of Russia, which wants that to maintain its leverage over Ukraine and prevent its neighbour from ever joining Nato.
The deal, however, requires the Ukrainian parliament to give wide powers to the eastern regions as a condition for restoring Ukraine’s full control over its border with Russia — a provision certain to trigger heated debate in Kiev.
Uncertainty remained even on the ceasefire, as Mr Putin admitted he and Mr Poroshenko disagreed on the situation at the government-held town of Debaltseve.
“We now have a glimmer of hope,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who brokered the talks in the Belarusian capital of Minsk together with French president Francois Hollande. “But the concrete steps, of course, have to be taken. And we will still face major obstacles. But, on balance, I can say what we have achieved gives significantly more hope than if we had achieved nothing.”
More than 5,300 people have died since April in eastern Ukraine amid fighting between the Russian-backed separatists and government troops. Battles still raged Thursday even as the four leaders held peace talks.
The new deal envisages a 50- to 140-kilometre wide buffer zone as both parties pull back heavy artillery and rocket systems from the front line, depending on their calibre. The withdrawal should begin no later than the second day after the ceasefire becomes effective and should be completed within two weeks.
In a win for Ukraine, the rebel regions, which held their own elections last fall that Ukraine and the West declared a sham, are obliged to hold a new local vote under the Ukrainian law.
But in a key concession to Russia, the deal says the restoration of Ukrainian control over its border with Russia in rebel-controlled areas could be completed only by the end of 2015 and on the condition that Ukraine conducts a constitutional reform granting wide powers to the eastern regions, including the right to form their own police and to trade freely with Russia.
“It was not the best night in my life. But the morning, I think, is good, because we have managed to agree on the main things despite all the difficulties of the negotiations,” Mr Putin told reporters.
Mr Hollande said he and Ms Merkel are committed to helping verify the ceasefire in Ukraine, hailing the deal as a “relief to Europe.”
In Kiev, Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said despite the peace talks, Russia sent 50 tanks and a dozen heavy weapons overnight into Ukraine.
In the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, residents who have seen their city pounded daily by artillery since late May were sceptical of the deal.
“We will see whether there will be a ceasefire or not,” Tatyana Griedzheva said. “You have seen it with your own eyes, the kind of ceasefire that we have already had.”
A previous ceasefire in September was violated repeatedly as Ukrainian forces and the rebels both tried to gain more ground.
Mr Poroshenko stressed that the agreement contains “a clear commitment to withdraw all foreign troops, all mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine,” a reference to the Russian soldiers and weapons that Ukraine and the West say Russia has sent into eastern Ukraine to back the rebels.
Moscow has denied the accusations, saying any Russia fighters were volunteers, but the sheer number of sophisticated heavy weapons in the rebels’ possession belies the denial.
Ms Merkel said, in the end, Mr Putin exerted pressure on the separatists to get them to agree to the ceasefire.
“I have no illusions. We have no illusions. A great, great deal of work is still necessary. But there is a real chance to make things better,” she said.
The French-German diplomatic offensive came as president Barack Obama considered sending US lethal weapons to Ukraine, a move that European nations feared would only widen the hostilities.
Rebel leaders lauded the agreement and said they’re willing to give Kiev another chance.
“(We) give this chance to Ukraine to change its constitution, to change its attitude,” Luhansk rebel leader Igor Plotnitsky said on Russian television.
Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said he will blame the Ukrainian government in Kiev if the ceasefire collapses and then there “will be no meetings and no new agreements.”
* Associated Press