World's nuclear stockpile grows to near 10,000 useable warheads

Experts say the world is reaching the end of a 'long period of the number of nuclear weapons worldwide declining'

China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles at a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing. AFP

The world’s nuclear powers have continued stockpiling useable arsenals for a third consecutive year amid heightened international tension.

Of the more than 12,500 nuclear warheads around the world, the number classified as “stockpiles for potential use” rose to 9,576 at the start of the year, 86 more than the previous year, a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said.

“We are approaching, or maybe have already reached, the end of a long period of the number of nuclear weapons worldwide declining,” said the institute's director Dan Smith.

According to the report, the total number of nuclear warheads held by nine countries – Russia, the US, Britain, France, India, Pakistan, China, North Korea and Israel – has dropped to 12,512 from 12,710 at the start of 2022.

The number included some older warheads that were scheduled to be dismantled.

Pointing to the stockpile of usable nuclear warheads, Mr Smith said that “those numbers are beginning to tick up”, while adding that they remain far below the more than 70,000 reported during the 1980s.

The bulk of the increase came from China, which increased its stockpile to 410 warheads, from 350.

India, Pakistan and North Korea also upped their stockpiles while Russia's grew, to a smaller extent, to 4,489, from 4,477, while the remaining nuclear powers maintained the size of their arsenals.

Russia and the US together have about 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons.

“The big picture is we've had over 30 years of the number of nuclear warheads coming down, and we see that process coming to an end now,” Mr Smith said.

That appeared to be backed up by a separate report from International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (Ican), which found world's nine nuclear-armed states jointly spent $82.9 billion on their arsenals last year, with the US accounting for more than half of that.

Ican, which was awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize, found that spending on nuclear weapons had risen by 3 per cent from 2021, marking the third consecutive annual increase.

The $82.9 billion spent amounted to $157,664 for every minute of 2022, it said in its report titled Wasted: 2022 Global Nuclear Weapons Spending.

Washington spent $43.7 billion, which was slightly less than a year earlier but was still far ahead of all other countries, the report showed.

China was next in line with $11.7 billion spent, followed by Russia at $9.6 billion, both marking an increase of around 6 per cent from 2021.

India, meanwhile, showed the most drastic spending jump, dishing out $2.7 billion – 21.8 per cent more than a year earlier – while Britain raised its spending level by 11 per cent to $6.8 billion.

The report also highlighted how arms companies involved in the production of nuclear weapons received new contracts worth slightly under $16 billion last year and, in turn, spent $113 million lobbying governments in the US and France alone.

Globally, nuclear-armed countries have contracts with companies to produce nuclear weapons worth at least $278.6 billion, continuing in some cases through to 2040, it said.

Researchers at SIPRI also noted that diplomatic efforts on nuclear arms control and disarmament had suffered setbacks following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year.

Russia has for instance suspended participation in New Start, a Cold War-era treaty that limits warheads and allows verification by both sides.

At the same time, Mr Smith said the increase in stockpiles could not be explained by the war in Ukraine, as it takes a longer time to develop new warheads and the bulk of the increase was among countries not directly affected.

China has also invested heavily in all parts of its military as its economy and influence have grown.

“What we're seeing is China stepping up as a world power,” Mr Smith said.

Last week, Russia said it would send nuclear weapons to neighbouring Belarus after special storage centres are ready in early July.

It will represent the first time Moscow will have moved nuclear warheads outside of Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.

“Preparation of the relevant facilities ends on July 7-8, and we will immediately begin activities related to the deployment of appropriate types of weapons on your territory,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko.

Experts told The National the Kremlin’s statement, released on Friday, was likely to ruffle feathers in Beijing, as it could be interpreted as “a pretext for the Americans sending nuclear weapons to Japan, [South] Korea” and other neighbouring countries.

“It will set alarm bells off, and quite rightly,” Dan Plesch, professor of diplomacy and strategy at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, said.

“But it’s part of a broader ongoing arms race. The world is spending $2 trillion on the military every year.”