2023 forecast to be one of Earth’s hottest years on record

Global temperatures in 2023 are set to be warmer than 2022

The forecast estimates global average temperatures in 2023 will be about 1.2°C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change. Reuters

Next year is forecast to be one of the world's hottest years on record, the UK's Met Office has said.

It is set to be the 10th consecutive year in which global temperatures will be at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels

The forecast estimates global average temperatures in 2023 will be about 1.2°C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change.

The current record hot year in the records, which date back to 1850, is 2016, a year in which an El Nino climate pattern in the Pacific pushed up global temperatures on top of global warming trends.

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“Without a preceding El Nino to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace, it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office.

The agency's Nick Dunstone, who led the 2023 global temperature forecast, said: “The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Nina — where cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific.

“La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.

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“For next year, our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Nina state, with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.

“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”

Doug Smith, a leading Met Office expert in climate prediction, added: “The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1°C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world.

“Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”

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The Met Office is forecasting a global average temperature of between 1.08°C and 1.32°C, with a central estimate of 1.2°C above what it was in the second half of the 19th century.

Last year, the Met Office predicted 2022’s global temperature rise would be between 0.97°C and 1.21°C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.09°C, while data for the year to October suggest the temperature is about 1.16°C above the pre-industrial era.