Call for Middle East areas to be prioritised to address drought and climate change threat

The Mena region is worst off in terms of physical water stress as it receives less rainfall than other regions

An aerial view of the Kut Water Project, on the bank of the Tigris river in the southern Iraqi city. Photo: AFP

More than 40 countries are facing severe food insecurity and 768 million people are at risk from catastrophic ecological threats, including 41 million in the Middle East, a report has warned.

The latest Ecological Threat Report (ETR) from international think tank the Institute for Economics and Peace also states that 56 per cent (127 of the 228) of the countries it monitors are facing “catastrophic ecological threats”.

Urgent calls are being made for some areas of the Middle East to be prioritised amid the threats of drought and climate change.

The ETR assesses which countries are most at risk from conflict and displacement caused by climate-related threats, such as water scarcity, food stress, natural disasters and rapid population growth.

The chief executive of the Institute for Economics and Peace, Steve Killelea, said the international community needs to address the issues of ecological degradation and conflict together.

“The major issues facing the Middle East will be the effects of droughts which increase temperatures, which are offshoots from climate change,” he told The National.

“Some parts of the Middle East have fast rising populations, then there are conflict issues in Iraq and Syria. A lot of these issues are interrelated; you have ecological threats such as water issues, lack of food, combined with weak governance in Iraq and Lebanon and these all form background issues for civil unrest. From that we get a large level of immigration.

“There is a need to prioritise these countries and improve security in the region and address the issues systemically.”

The main finding from the 2022 ETR is that without concerted international action, current levels of ecological degradation will substantially worsen, thereby intensifying a range of social challenges, including malnutrition, forced migration and illness. Current conflicts will escalate and multiply as a result, creating further global insecurity.

It warns that 768 million people in 27 countries around the world are at risk from “catastrophic ecological threats”, with two thirds in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and 18.5 per cent in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena).

Number of undernourished people up by 35%

The report said the number of undernourished people around the world jumped by 35 per cent last year to 750 million, leaving 41 countries facing severe food insecurity.

“This is our third report and things have got gradually worse, the undernourishment figure now stands at 750 million people, that’s an increase of 35 per cent in the last year,” Mr Killelea said.

“Africa is suffering the most, followed by the Middle East with 41 million suffering from food insecurity and a lot are stuck in conflict zones.”

In these countries, more than 65 per cent of the population were unable to afford food for their family at least once in the last year, the report says.

“Ninety-two per cent of these people live in low or very low peace countries,” it said.

“Compounding an already existing trend, food insecurity was boosted by dramatic increases in food prices driven by the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by the Russia-Ukraine War.

“Notably, the Food Price Index has increased by 50 per cent since the beginning of the pandemic. An additional area of concern for many countries is their dependency on food imports from conflict-affected countries. This puts them at higher risk of food insecurity, a trend highlighted by the Russia-Ukraine war.”

It said the countries facing the highest conflict risk to their food imports are Zimbabwe, Tajikistan, Republic of the Congo and DRC, due to their main source of food imports coming from neighbouring countries.

“Food insecurity and water stress are interlinked, as without adequate water capture it is impossible to provide sufficient food,” it warned.

“More than 1.4 billion people in 83 countries face extreme water stress. All but one of the 52 countries in SSA are affected by extreme water stress. Several European countries are projected to have serious water stress by 2040, including Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal.”

Farming initiatives and sand dams needed to address water crises

It said conflicts over water have increased and those with the most were Iraq, Somalia, Yemen and Sudan, with international rights to water becoming “increasingly contentious”. Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will probably reduce flows to Sudan and Egypt, affecting 200 million people who rely on the Nile, it added.

The 2022 ETR includes a number of policy recommendations generated by 60 experts aimed at supporting local communities to improve water capture, agricultural yields and resilience.

Key recommendations include encouraging international agencies to combine health, food and water initiatives.

“Sand dams in Kenya, dispensers for safe water in Malawi and engineered wetlands in China provide examples of programmes that build water resilience, cheaply and effectively,” it said.

“Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) has regenerated millions of hectares of degraded land in Africa and has exceptional potential, due to the cost of implementation and has the potential to improve the lives of tens of millions.”

Currently, the Mena region is the worst off in terms of physical water stress, as it receives less rainfall than other regions.

Europe is also expected to face high levels of water stress over next 20 years, with Greece, Italy and the Netherlands under threat, and it is currently facing one of its worst droughts, with two thirds of the continent in a state of alert.

European rivers have reached their lowest point in 1,400 years, affecting the ability of barges to carry goods.

In August 2022, Germany closed parts of the Rhine, as the water level fell to 37 centimetres, and in France nuclear power stations at the Rhône and Garonne rivers temporarily reduced their output amid fears that releasing water from the reactors would raise the water temperature too much for wildlife.

Desert cities at risk of 4°C temperature rise

It warns that unless measures are taken to address climate change the temperature in cities in the tropics or in deserts will rise.

“There are indications that extremely high temperatures can lead to interpersonal violence, civil conflict and a fall in economic activity,” it said.

“Unless action is taken to reverse rising temperatures, many cities could experience a warming of 4°C by the end of the 21st century.”

By 2050 3.4bn people will face catastrophic ecological threats

It estimates that in 2050, 3.4 billion people will reside in countries facing catastrophic ecological threats, compared to 2 billion in 2022.

“There is a growing recognition of a link between the changing climate, forced migration and conflict. By 2050, it is estimated that climate change will lead to the internal displacement of tens of millions of people in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and South Asia,” it said.

“According to projections, over 143 million people could be internally displaced due to increasing ecological threats due to a changing climate.

“The poorest and most climate vulnerable areas will be hit the hardest. It is likely that rising sea levels will push people to abandon some coastal areas, as weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable and storms worsen in severity and onset.

“Migration in such numbers will have an impact on recipient countries and regions. Mass migration can increase pressures on existing infrastructure, creating grievances.”

Mr Killelea said the answer is for the international community to work together.

“I think there is a tendency for a national focus on climate change but ecological threats are already there and manifesting and without international action it is only going to get worse,” he said.

“I think the international community needs to look at these issues, as a priority at the areas most at risk and do their best to address the issues.

“It comes back to the resilience of the country and being able to focus on the actual issues such as water, food, micro development and the levels of population growth.”