F-35B 'Lightning' aircraft parked aboard the deck of the Royal Navy's 'HMS Queen Elizabeth' aircraft carrier in July this year. AFP
F-35B 'Lightning' aircraft parked aboard the deck of the Royal Navy's 'HMS Queen Elizabeth' aircraft carrier in July this year. AFP
F-35B 'Lightning' aircraft parked aboard the deck of the Royal Navy's 'HMS Queen Elizabeth' aircraft carrier in July this year. AFP
F-35B 'Lightning' aircraft parked aboard the deck of the Royal Navy's 'HMS Queen Elizabeth' aircraft carrier in July this year. AFP

Race to recover UK's £100m F-35 jet before it is found by Turkey or Russia


Thomas Harding
  • English
  • Arabic

Britain is racing to find the wreckage of a Royal Navy F-35 jet which crashed in international waters amid fears that Turkey will seek to salvage highly classified fragments of the aircraft, defence analysts have told The National.

The skin of the £100m jet would be considered a huge prize as it could allow rivals to replicate its stealth capabilities, or give them an increased ability to shoot them down.

British and Nato warships are assembling to protect the Eastern Mediterranean crash site after the advanced fighter went down as it took off from the flagship aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth on Wednesday.

UK officials said the Ministry of Defence was moving swiftly to recover the fighter.

It is the first time that an F-35 has come down in accessible international waters. The pilot safely ejected and was returned to the ship.

As well as Turkey, Russia is understood to be keen to scour the sea, with even a fragment of the aircraft’s outer skin considered extremely useful.

The latest naval tracking data shows a considerable amount of warship activity south of Crete, with a British Type-45 destroyer on station alongside a specialist tug.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson sits in the cockpit of an F-35 Lightning II during a visit to the 'HMS Queen Elizabeth' aircraft carrier, in May 2021. Getty Images
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson sits in the cockpit of an F-35 Lightning II during a visit to the 'HMS Queen Elizabeth' aircraft carrier, in May 2021. Getty Images

Warships from Spain and Germany are also in the area, and a Norwegian construction support vessel is heading into the waters that could potentially be used to lift the 15-tonne aircraft.

The HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier is near Sicily, 900km away.

Defence sources have indicated that Turkey is “extremely keen” to find parts, particularly after the US denied sales of the fighter jet to Ankara. Any technology recovered could be used by Turkey’s burgeoning defence industry to develop its own advanced aircraft.

“Turkey has been excluded from the F-35 programme, so I'm sure they’d love to have some debris for their own domestic aerospace industry,” said Gareth Jennings, aviation editor for Janes Defence Weekly. “I'm also sure they would love to find out some of the technical secrets of the F-35. Both the British government and the Americans will be very keen that this aircraft is recovered.”

The UK MoD is understood to be worried about the Russians, who have a naval base in Tartus, Syria, more than a day’s sail away. There is also a possibility that civilian ships could recover debris and sell it on to foreign powers, including China.

“This is a concern,” said a military source. “The Lightnings [F-35s] have modern electronic scanned array radar, an electro-optical sensor and night vision equipment. If you can discover how that works you can work out how close the jet has to come to its target to see things.”

He added that the aircraft’s flight recorders would reveal highly classified performance information on the F-35. “There's plenty of actors in that region who would love to get their hands on this aircraft.”

The military will be hoping that measures introduced to protect the F-35 from reverse engineering -because it was always intended as an export product — will be enough to prevent its secrets being revealed.

But even a scrap of it could prove useful, according to Dr Justin Bronk, air power expert at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank.

“One of the big innovations on F-35 is its radar absorbing protein which is very resilient and is a huge advance,” he said. “They will also want to recover the hardware in terms of sensors, radar, emitters, targeting system and lenses.

A man waves a British flag as 'HMS Queen Elizabeth' sails out of Tokyo bay in September. Getty Images
A man waves a British flag as 'HMS Queen Elizabeth' sails out of Tokyo bay in September. Getty Images

“I'm sure Russia would love to get its hand on this. The US and British will certainly be keen to get the crash area secured and the recovery done as soon as they can. If they can't raise it, then they’ll probably destroy it in place.”

Tim Ripley, another aviation expert from Janes, said small paint samples from the aircraft skins would allow scientists to find out what the composites are made from. “Once they have those, then they can test their own systems against those systems to find out how better to detect the aircraft,” he said.

The British astute hunter-killer submarine accompanying the carrier, and any American or other Nato submarines in the vicinity, are also likely to head to the site to protect the fighter. The Russians have submarines stationed at Tartus.

The waters south of Crete are about 2,000 metres deep, putting them beyond divers, but easily within range of the US Navy’s deep submergence vehicles that can go to 6,000m.

The recovery effort is likely to take weeks and could be hampered by poor weather.

The Navy will want to establish the cause of the crash of the £100 million ($134.5m) aircraft. Taking off from an aircraft carrier is always challenging, with engine failure the likely cause, either because of a technical problem, bird strike or pilot error.

It is the third time a F-35 has crashed in the last three years.

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Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

How has net migration to UK changed?

The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.

It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.

The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.

The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.

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Updated: November 18, 2021, 5:35 PM