TUNIS // The battle for an expected runoff for the Tunisian presidency got under way on Monday even before the first round of results were in.
Veteran anti-Islamist politician Beji Caid Sebsi, whose party placed first in a parliamentary election last month, looked set to fall short of the 50 per cent threshold required to win outright, his campaign team conceded.
He is poised to face off against incumbent Moncef Marzouki, the incumbent president who has made common cause with the Islamists against what he says is an attempt at a comeback by former loyalists of the autocratic regime overthrown in 2011.
The election is a milestone for the North African nation, the birthplace of the Arab Spring which set off a chain of revolts in the region when the long-time strongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted in 2011.
US secretary of state John Kerry hailed Tunisia’s transition to democracy as an “historic moment”, and pledged Washington’s support for the next government, whoever leads it.
Tunisian leaders pride themselves on the fact that the country has been spared the bloodshed that has ravaged other Arab Spring states such as Libya and Yemen after their dictators were toppled by citizens demanding democratic reform. Despite fears of disruption by Islamist militants, polling day passed off peacefully.
But the expected runoff scheduled for late next month is likely to be polarising, with Mr Marzouki’s camp portraying him as the last line of defence against a return to the autocratic ways of the old regime, and his opponent deriding him as an Islamist pawn.
In a speech on Sunday, Mr Marzouki called on “all democratic forces” to back him against Mr Caid Sebsi, who served under both Ben Ali and his predecessor Habib Bourguiba.
“I am now calling on all democratic forces ... alongside whom I have campaigned for the past 30 years for a real democracy, for a break with the past, for a genuine civil society and for a separation of powers, I call on them to unite around their candidate. I have become their natural candidate.”
Mr Marzouki argues that only he can preserve the gains of the uprising, while his critics say he hijacked the spirit of the revolution by allying himself with the moderate Islamist party Ennahda in 2011.
The rule of Ennahda, which came second in the October parliamentary election, was marred by a surge of radical Islamism and the assassination of two leftist politicians by militant suspects.
Mr Caid Sebsi insisted on Monday that only he could defend Tunisia against the threat of Islamist extremism.
“The people who voted for Marzouki were the Islamists ... that is to say Ennahda members ... but also the jihadist Salafists,” he told French radio station RMC.
Asked about the likely runoff, Mr Caid Sebsi said: “Unfortunately there is going to be a split down the middle, with Islamists on one side and then all the democrats and non-Islamists on the other.”
If Mr Caid Sebsi wins he will have to form a coalition government – even if it is with Ennahda – because his Nidaa Tounes party fell short of securing an absolute majority in October.
The rival camps disagreed over their balance of support as a runoff loomed.
Mr Marzouki’s campaign manager said he is neck and neck with Mr Caid Sebsi, the pre-polling favourite for the top job.
“At the worst we are even but at best we’re between two and four per cent ahead,” Adnene Mancer said after polls closed.
“Our chances are good as we go into a runoff.”
However, Mr Caid Sebsi’s camp said the 87-year-old political veteran had come out ahead in Sunday’s vote.
Mr Caid Sebsi, “according to preliminary estimates, is ahead and has a large lead”, his campaign manager Mohsen Marzouk said.
Another presidential hopeful, leftist politician Hamma Hammami, who according to exit polls came third, told the media that his political group will meet “as soon as possible” to consider how to vote in the probable runoff.
Whoever wins, the economy will be a priority, with unemployment, a leading cause of the revolution, still running at 15 per cent.
* Agence France-Presse