Trump victory a global risk ‘more dangerous than Brexit’

The Economist Intelligence Unit ranked victory for US presidential hopeful Donald Trump alongside the threat of ISIL, saying he has 'taken an exceptionally right-wing stance on the Middle East and terrorism'.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaking at a rally at Lenoir-Rhyne University in Hickory, North Carolina. In its latest report, the Economic Intelligence Unit ranked a US presidential Show more

London // The prospect of Donald Trump winning the US presidency represents a global threat on par with extremist militancy destabilising the world economy, according to British research group EIU.

In its latest Global Risk assessment, the Economist Intelligence Unit ranked victory for the Republican front-runner at 12 – alongside the threat of ISIL, which the group said risked ending a five-year bull run on US and European stock markets if terrorist attacks escalated.

The current top threat on the index is a Chinese economic “hard landing”, which is rated 20.

Justifying the threat level, the EIU highlighted the tycoon’s alienation towards China as well as his comments on extremism, saying a proposal to stop Muslims from entering the United States would be a “potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups”.

It also raised the spectre of a trade war under a Trump presidency and pointed out that his policies “tend to be prone to constant revision”.

“He has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably Nafta [the North American Free Trade Agreement], and has repeatedly labelled China as a ‘currency manipulator’,” it said.

“He has also taken an exceptionally right-wing stance on the Middle East and terrorism, including, among other things, advocating the killing of families of terrorists and launching a land incursion into Syria to wipe out ISIL.”

By comparison it gave the threat posed by Britain leaving the European Union, or Brexit, an eight – the same as a possible armed clash in the South China Sea. It also ranked an emerging market debt crisis at 16.

The break-up of the eurozone following a Greek exit from the bloc was rated 15, while the prospect of a new “cold war” fuelled by Russian interventions in Ukraine and Syria was put at 16.

A Trump victory, it said, would at least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February, while “his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war”.

“There are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn,” it added.

However, the organisation said it did not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, in an election and pointed out that Congress would likely block some of his more radical proposals if he won November’s election.

* Agence France-Presse