Syria not a priority for Biden but US close to releasing humanitarian funding

'This is just not the time for quiet' on Syria, says Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute

There are no signs that Syria will be at the top of US President Joe Biden's Middle East agenda. AP Photo

When he was vice president under Barack Obama, US President Joe Biden advocated a stricter US policy in Syria, disagreeing with the former president when he backed away from enforcing a red line on chemical weapons in 2013 and advising caution in arming rebel groups.

But as the Syrian conflict enters its 11th year, there are no signs that Syria will be anywhere near the top of Mr Biden's Middle East agenda, or that he will become involved militarily beyond retaliatory and counter-terrorism strikes in the country.

While the previous two US administrations appointed a special envoy to Syria, Mr Biden has not yet done so, although he has assigned special envoys to Yemen and Iran.

Instead, the Biden team has kept Aimee Cutrona as acting special representative for Syria engagement and has for the most part run the file from the White House, as well as desk officers at the State Department and the Pentagon.

Charles Lister, senior fellow and director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism programmes at the Middle East Institute think tank, describes the first two months of the Biden policy on Syria as a continuation from Donald Trump's administration.

"What we have thus far from the Biden administration on Syria policy is a great deal of continuity and very little change – but to be frank, that's also because we've seen very little in the way of actual policy action," Mr Lister told The National.

The continuity thus far has been keeping existing sanctions, carrying out counter-ISIS operations and, in a Trump-like move, approving an air strike on February 26 against an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia inside Syria, following an attack on a US base in Iraq.

But while the State Department exercised much gravitas in the Syria file during the Trump administration, Mr Lister sees that power shifting to the White House under Mr Biden.

At the White House, Brett McGurk, the former US envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, is now the White House co-ordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.

Zehra Bell, a State Department career diplomat who worked on the Syria Transition Assistance Response Team, is director for Iraq and Syria.

"A soft review of Syria policy is still under way in the White House and that's largely stifled the State Department's ability to exert itself beyond the bounds of standard activity," Mr Lister said.

He is not anticipating a political appointee will fill the Syria envoy's seat at the State Department.

"Concerns over the effect of prioritising Iran policy over Syria, as well as Secretary of State Antony Blinken's desire to leverage internal State Department capabilities, appear to have put an external appointment off the table for now," Mr Lister said.

Former US ambassador to the UAE Barbara Leaf is still expected to be nominated as assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, but her confirmation – and that of Colin Kahl, nominated for undersecretary of defence for policy at the Pentagon – may not happen until next month.

Mr Lister points out that Congress has been advocating for a more vocal and assertive policy on Syria.

“We [the US] have troops on the ground watching ISIS slowly resurge across the Euphrates, and we're just four months away from a potentially game-changing Russian severing of all cross-border aid – this is just not the time for quiet,” he said.

One area that could see some improvement under the Biden team would be the humanitarian situation in Syria.

The administration is close to releasing the $230 million in stabilisation funding that was frozen under Mr Trump.

Basma Alloush, policy and advocacy adviser at the Norwegian Refugee Council, points to a dire humanitarian situation that will only worsen if the Biden administration does not act.

"At a time when global humanitarian funds are decreasing and humanitarian needs increasing, it is important that the Biden team does not lose sight or de-prioritise the humanitarian crisis in Syria," Ms Alloush told The National.

“If there is no scale-up in assistance and no political settlement to the Syrian crisis, we are guaranteed to see more displacement and fewer opportunities to seek safety.

"Syrians will remain in precarious, vulnerable positions with their rights violated daily, regardless of whether they're displaced inside Syria or elsewhere,” she said.

To alleviate human suffering, Ms Alloush called on the US to: implement a nationwide ceasefire; scale up funding assistance for crisis response; increase diplomatic engagement with Syria's neighbours to improve refugee conditions; engage with all parties to ensure unfettered humanitarian access; renew the UN Security Council cross-border resolution in July; and speedily resettling eligible Syrian refugees.

But to achieve these, former US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman sees a need for more flexibility from the US on the issue of sanctions.

"US policies over the last 10 years have not helped the Syrian people build a better future in their own country," Mr Feltman, now a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institute think tank, told The National.

The former US diplomat and UN undersecretary general for political affairs says the new administration has to “look forward and backwards at the same time".

It should "look backwards, in terms of keeping up the pressure for accountability for the deaths and destruction of Syria, and forwards in terms of what the United States could do to try to reduce additional suffering”, Mr Feltman said.

"Syria is probably not at the top of the list of US foreign policy priorities. But it is a subset of many that do appear high on that list, from terrorism to Iranian policy to security to Israel to human rights, and thus cannot be ignored.".

Mr Feltman is calling for a new approach that uses sanctions to force the regime to offer concessions. “The economic situation is spiralling downward, creating different types of existential pressures on the Assad regime.

"Yes, the Iranians and Russians bailed [Bashar Al] Assad out militarily. But I can't see them willing or able to take on the long-term task of bailing him out economically.”

He proposes publicly setting out a list of tangible steps for the Assad regime to take in return for the temporary suspension of sanctions.

Those steps would be co-ordinated with the Russians and could include prisoner releases, greater respect for human rights, political reform – including decentralisation – and good faith participation in the UN's Geneva process.

Mr Feltman is not putting the onus on the Assad regime, with which whom he tried to negotiate with good faith measures in the past.

What has changed now, he said, is the economic situation, with the Syrian lira at historic lows, and possible Russian pressure, especially if such a proposal is tied to the cross-border issue at the UN in July.

“[Mr Al Assad] might refuse,” Mr Feltman said, which would “demonstrate – as if more proof was needed – that he remains the primary obstacle to a brighter future for Syria".

At the State Department, a US official was not willing to discuss sanctions relief or any rapprochement with the Assad regime.

“The extremely dire humanitarian crisis in Syria is a direct result of the Assad regime’s blocking of life-saving assistance, systemic corruption and economic mismanagement,” the official said.

He called on “the regime and its supporters to engage seriously in political dialogue and allow humanitarian assistance to reach communities in need".