New Yorkers are voting for Joe Biden while thinking of Bernie Sanders

To understand why President Donald Trump will struggle to win his former home state in next week's presidential election, chat to folks at McCarren Park running track in Brooklyn, perhaps the trendiest of New York City's five boroughs. Here, young urban professionals enjoy group yoga classes, Latinos kick around soccer balls and Black Lives Matter campaigners collect signatures. The nearby Upstate Stock coffee spot is reputed for its tasty vegan croissants. Mr Trump's black glass towers dot New York City's skyline, but the Republican's nationalist ideas do not resonate here. Polls suggest voters will overwhelmingly choose his Democratic rival Joe Biden in the Presidential election on November 3. Yet thanks to America's knotty voting arithmetic, this matters little. New York is not among the swing states that will determine the winner, and New Yorkers are worth less in elections than voters in rural states. "I'm just hoping the big orange fat man goes down in flames," said Matthew Levine, who, in the characteristic style of native New Yorkers, was not shy about discussing the spray-tanned 45th president. "What can you like about the man? He lies, he puts babies in cages, he's a racist, a misogynist and just about the worst person on the planet. I hope he loses this election. I hope he suffers. I hope he goes bankrupt, and his kids go to jail." The National spoke to other folks running, stretching and lifting weights on a mild October afternoon. All were planning to vote for Mr Biden, a former Vice President, once the polls opened for early voting in the state on Saturday. "I'm worried about what might happen if Trump is elected again," Natalie Rynczak, 30, a teacher and also a native New Yorker, said after completing an afternoon jog. "He's racist, he's divisive, his administration's policies compromise basic human rights." Four years under a Trump administration have made American life toxic, she added. "It's much harder to talk to people who don't agree with you now. Everything escalates very quickly into an argument." Mr Levine also lamented America's deepening political polarization, saying he stuck to a "nice little Brooklyn bubble" that is worlds apart from the Bible Belt, South, Midwest and other Trump heartlands. Such views are not surprising. A Republican presidential candidate has not won in New York since Ronald Reosagan in 1984. Mr Trump, who hails from Queens, did not buck that trend when he lost to Hillary Clinton here in 2016. Still, Mr Trump, whose name appears on skyscrapers on Wall Street, Fifth Avenue and other prime spots in the city, told The New York Post in August that he is "putting New York in play" in 2020, pointing to his popularity upstate and on Long Island. The President, now a registered Florida resident, says New Yorkers are sick of high taxes, high crime rates, and Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo's strict coronavirus lockdown, which has hurt the economy of a city that was the global epicentre of the virus in March. "Look at what's happened to New York, it's a ghost town," Mr Trump said at Thursday's televised debate. "These are restaurants that are dying. These are businesses with no money. Putting up plexiglass is unbelievably expensive, and it's not the answer." Mr Trump can count on some New York fans. Thousands of Staten Islanders bowed their heads and said prayers when the president was sick with Covid-19 earlier this month. Others formed a pro-Trump caravan of some 700 vehicles in Albany, the state capital. But his chances here are slim. A Siena College poll of likely New York voters gave Mr Biden a massive 32-point lead over the president earlier this month. College pollster Steven Greenberg said it was not "likely that Trump can be competitive in his former home state". With such baked-in support for Democrats, few analysts doubt that New York's 29 electoral votes will bolster Mr Biden's election-day tally. Candidates need 270 such votes to secure the White House. "Even if a vast amount of people sit this one out or vote independent, we will still go [Democratic] blue," added Ms Rynczak. "Lots of friends feel comfortable doing a protest vote in New York, and they probably are safe to do so." The same holds true for California. The highest-value state is worth 55 electoral votes, it has backed Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 1992 — meaning Mr Biden will likely add those to his score too. The 2020 election instead hinges on Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and other toss-up states where the candidates have held frequent rallies and poured millions of dollars into television adverts. In another quirk of US elections, the electoral college affords greater value to voters in rural states like Wyoming and Vermont than it does to populace New York, home to 19.5 million, with 8.4 million in New York City alone. It is one of the reasons Mr Trump won the 2016 election despite getting 3 million fewer votes than Ms Clinton nationally. Back at McCarren Park's running track, nobody foresaw Mr Trump pulling off the same feat again next week. They all planned to vote for Mr Biden, despite him being seen as a Wall Street-friendly centrist. Many city-dwellers prefer leftist senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who lost to Mr Biden in the Democratic primaries. They pivoted to Mr Biden because he had a better chance of capturing the White House. "It's two bad options," Eugene Karmazin, 44, a software engineer from Brooklyn, said of the candidates. "We have to choose between an actual oligarch and a guy who spent 50 years serving the oligarchy. Trump is too close to your typical proto-fascist. If I choose between a crook and a fascist, I choose the crook."

New Yorkers are voting for Joe Biden while thinking of Bernie Sanders

Many liberal-leaning voters in the Democrat stronghold prefer leftist senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren but will opt for Biden over President Trump