Natanz attack likely to harden Iran’s position but not sabotage talks, experts say

Opponents to nuclear deal say reported Israeli actions help Biden administration by setting atomic programme back

Experts say Iran’s need for sanctions relief will likely keep it in negotiations with the US for now. EPA/AEOI Handout

The attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear site at the weekend, for which Washington has claimed no involvement, is likely to complicate US-Iran talks but will not sabotage them altogether, experts said on Monday.

Henry Rome and Jeffrey Wright of the Eurasia analysis group said Iran’s need for sanctions relief would probably keep the talks going for now.

"Israel's alleged attack on the Natanz nuclear site will likely harden Iran's position in nuclear negotiations this week but it will not lead to a permanent collapse in talks," the two wrote.

Iran’s need for sanctions relief is undiminished, even if domestic politics have become more complicated in the run-up to the June elections, they said.

They expect Israel's suspected role in the operation will play into the hands of Iranian hardliners before the elections.

“The incident and the broader political climate reinforce our argument that a deal after the June presidential elections is more likely than before June," the two said.

But the analysts said a US-Iran deal was still likely to occur before the end of the year.

“Our overall outlook for a US-Iran deal this year remains constructive," the said.

"Iran needs sanctions relief and the Biden administration strongly believes that a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is key to its objectives in the region.”

But the attack still complicates US government efforts and negotiations.

“Aside from physically degrading Iranian capabilities, the Israeli goal seems aimed at sabotaging the diplomatic process by ... provoking Iran to conduct a major retaliation, which would make it difficult for the US to contemplate concessions to Iran,” Mr Rome and Mr Wright said.

Opponents to the deal regarded the attack as granting the Biden team more strength in negotiating with Iran by setting back Tehran's nuclear programme.

“Israel just gave the US envoy to Iran [Robert Malley] increased leverage. Hope he uses it,” tweeted Mark Dubowitz, executive director of The Foundation for Defence of Democracies.

Officials told The New York Times that the "explosion had dealt a severe blow to Iran's ability to enrich uranium and that it could take at least nine months to restore Natanz's production".

“We've seen the reports," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said.

"We don't have anything more to speak to in terms of the causes or who is responsible. Our focus is, of course, on the diplomatic path forward.

"We have not been given any indications that attendance at the discussions that will proceed on Wednesday have changed."