Back in 1981, Alan Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, discovered a sure-fire method of predicting the outcome of US presidential elections.
Instead of relying on polling data, which only presents a snapshot of public opinion at a moment in time, Prof Lichtman developed a method of prognostication based on analysis of macro-level trends that define the political landscape.
He identified the indicators and called them "the 13 keys to the White House".
Prof Lichtman based his 1981 paper on an analysis of every US presidential election since 1860, and since 1984 he has used his 13 keys to predict correctly every contest, getting even the closest votes right.
According to Prof Lichtman, to win the White House the incumbent party must hold at least eight of the 13 keys. Less than eight means that the political setting is so hostile to the incumbent party that the victory is impossible.
What follows are the 13 keys and an assessment as to whether the Republicans can claim the requisite eight they will need to win. (A "yes" means that they get that particular key, a "no" means they do not.)
1. Incumbent-party mandate
"In the last congressional election, the incumbent party increased its seats in the US House of Representatives." No. Democrats won more seats in the 2006 midterm elections, and now hold more seats in Congress than they did after the previous midterm contest in 2002.
2. Nomination contest
"There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination." Yes. Although John McCain faced tough opposition early on, he won handily and unified his party by its convention.
3. Incumbency
"The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president." No. Mr McCain is not George W Bush, despite the efforts of Democrats to tie his policies to the current administration.
4. Third party
"There is no significant third-party challenge." Yes. This election has no candidate like Ross Perot who is capable of winning a significant percentage of the overall vote. The two main independent candidates in 2008 - Ralph Nader and Bob Barr - will probably get a combined total of about five per cent of the vote and draw equally from both Mr McCain and Barack Obama, or win support from those who otherwise would not have voted.
5. Short-term economy
"The economy is not in recession." Yes? There has been a meltdown on Wall Street. Economists define a recession, however, as two consecutive quarters of falling gross national product, and this is not yet the case. Certainly the mood of the US body politic has soured.
6. Long-term economy
"Real annual per-capita growth is improving." No. Real per-capita economic growth is not improving.
7. Policy change
"The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy." No. In its last term, the Bush administration has not effected any major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest
"There is no sustained social unrest." Yes. There is real public concern: only 11 per cent believe the country is on the "right track" and Mr Bush's approval rating languishes at 22 per cent, but there is no "sustained unrest" - as there was, for
example, in the 1960s.
9. Scandal
"The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal." Yes. There are problems, but there has been no Watergate-level investigation, Iran-Contra hearings or impeachment proceedings.
10. Foreign or military failure
"The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs." Toss-up. The Bush administration is still struggling in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and has failed at Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking - but it has not suffered a Vietnam-style defeat, either.
11. Foreign or military success
"The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs." No. There have been no victory parades.
12. Incumbent charisma
"The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero." Yes? By "hero", Prof Lichtman means a national wartime leader who led the country to victory - such as Dwight D Eisenhower or Ulysses S Grant. Mr McCain is not that, but his personal story, as a prisoner of war, is compelling for many Americans.
13. Challenger charisma
"The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero." No? To the same degree that Mr McCain's story works for his supporters, Mr Obama's charisma is a powerful draw for his. This may account for Mr McCain's last-ditch effort to tarnish Mr Obama's image and character. But in the end, while neither of these two candidates fit Prof Lichtman's exact definitions of "hero," neither are they Mr Bush, Al Gore or John Kerry (the challengers in 2000 and 2004, respectively) - and so it is a draw.
It appears clear, from this application of Prof Lichtman's analysis, that even in the best-case scenario for Mr McCain the Republican candidate would still win only seven of the keys and, therefore, not enough to keep the White House in Republican hands.
jzogby@thenational.ae
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster with a decades-long career in TV. He has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others. Karam is also the founder of Takreem.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
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Profile Idealz
Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Size: (employees): 22
Investors: Co-founders and Venture Partners (9 per cent)
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5