Sri Lankan leader faces election battle as war effect wanes

Diplomats in Colombo say they sense a shift in favour of the opposition as Mahinda Rajapakse faces criticism over his failure to bring about reconciliation with Sri Lanka's Tamil minority.

A Sri Lankan woman walks past election posters of president Mahinda Rajapakse in the Colombo suburb of Piliyandala on January 6, 2015. Mr Rajapakse faces an unprecedented challenge when he seeks re-elShow more

COLOMBO // Sri Lanka’s president faces an unprecedented challenge from the newly galvanised opposition when he seeks re-election on Thursday, five years after his military victory over Tamil guerrillas.

Mahinda Rajapakse, South Asia’s longest-serving leader, had appeared politically invincible after his forces crushed the Tamil Tigers in 2009, ending a decades-long conflict and ushering in a new era of prosperity for the island nation.

But despite winning a landslide victory in 2010, critics say the 69-year-old president has since failed to bring about reconciliation with Sri Lanka’s Tamil minority.

Mr Rajapakse’s second term has also been dogged by accusations of corruption, including undermining the judiciary’s independence and lining the pockets of political cronies through lucrative contracts.

The surprise decision of his health minister Maithripala Sirisena to defect from the ruling party and stand as the main opposition candidate has turned what might have been a walkover for Mr Rajapakse into a real contest.

Political commentator Victor Ivan said low-profile Mr Sirisena had become a symbol of simmering discontent over corruption.

“[Mr Rajapakse] failed to ensure reconciliation,” Mr Ivan said.

“His focus was [on] mega-highways and ports. That was good for GDP growth, but not enough to heal a society wounded by decades of conflict.”

Sri Lanka’s economy has grown by an annual average of more than seven per cent since the war ended, partly thanks to hefty investment from Mr Rajapakse’s close ally, China.

But the opposition says Chinese contractors have employed few local people, and household incomes have not kept pace with national growth rates.

Meanwhile, opposition parties – including the main Tamil party – have rallied behind Mr Sirisena, a 63-year-old farmer-turned-politician who is from the majority Sinhalese community.

And while the president still has support among Sinhalese voters, he is widely detested by the Tamils, the country’s biggest minority, who account for 13 per cent of its 15 million people and usually vote as a bloc.

Mr Rajapakse has taken drastic measures to shore up support, slashing fuel prices, cutting water and electricity tariffs and giving subsidised motorcycles and hefty pay increases to 1.6 million public servants.

He has also promised a judicial inquiry into allegations that his troops killed 40,000 Tamil civilians at the end of the civil war, although he still refuses to cooperate with a UN-mandated investigation.

Last week he told voters in the Tamil-dominated northern peninsula of Jaffna that he was committed to improving their livelihoods, listing a series of infrastructure projects in the war-ravaged region.

“I am the known devil, so please vote for me,” Mr Rajapakse said through a translator.

Also last week, however, one of Mr Sirisena’s top supporters accused the government of deploying thousands of troops to Tamil-majority areas as part of a strategy to intimidate voters against backing the opposition candidate.

The military has denied accusations of campaigning for Mr Rajapakse.

The Tamils could be kingmakers if the majority Sinhalese constituency split down the middle between Mr Rajapakse and Mr Sirisena.

“We will vote for [Mr] Sirisena not because we like him, but because we don’t like the president,” said Colombo-based Tamil company executive Ratnavale Chandrasekaran,

Mr Rajapakse called snap elections two years ahead of schedule in the hope of pre-empting an opposition fightback.

Close associates say the timing was decided partly on advice given by his personal astrologer.

The 69-year-old, who has been accused of growing authoritarianism, removed the presidential two-term limit and gave himself more powers soon after winning a second term in 2010.

Mr Sirisena’s defection was carefully choreographed by Mr Rajapakse’s adversary, former president Chandrika Kumaratunga, who returned to politics after a nine-year retirement, and has split the ruling party.

A hardline party of Sinhalese Buddhist monks, who had previously supported Mr Rajapakse’s refusal to bow to an international investigation, also defected to the opposition in November, accusing the president of unprecedented corruption and nepotism.

The president’s eldest brother Chamal is speaker of parliament, while another brother, Basil, is economic development minister and a third, Gotabhaya, serves as the defence secretary.

Other family members also dominate state institutions and government-owned companies.

The pro-government media are predicting a close fight, while diplomats in Colombo say they sense a shift in favour of the opposition.

As signs of opposition strength grew, the privately-run Sunday Times newspaper questioned the wisdom of Mr Rajapakse’s decision to call a snap election.

“President Mahinda Rajapakse for once goes [in] as the underdog,” the paper said.

* Agence France-Presse