NEW YORK // The United Nations Security Council is expected to vote on a US request for sanctions against Yemen’s former president and two Houthi rebel leaders on Friday, in a last-ditch bid to stabilise the country’s failing political process.
But the sanctions may trigger a backlash that could weaken the political transition that the GCC and US helped broker in 2011, analysts said. The transition has been derailed by the Houthi rebels’ seizure of Sanaa in September and a deadlock over forming a new government.
Just weeks after the US president Barack Obama held up Yemen’s political process after the 2011 uprising as a model for the region, Washington appears to be caught by surprise by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s reassertion of power within the General People’s Congress party (GPC) against his party rival and successor, and his suspected alliance with the Houthis, a movement against which he waged war during his 33-year rule.
In February the Security Council agreed to impose sanctions against anyone who undermined the political process, and last month the US requested a travel ban on, among others, Mr Saleh and two leaders of the Zaidi-Shia rebels, Abd Al Khaliq Al Houthi and his deputy Abdullah Yahya Al Hakim, and the freezing of their bank accounts.
The request reportedly stated that Mr Saleh had “become one of the primary supporters of the Houthi rebellion” and that he was trying to cause chaos in the country.
Security Council members had until Friday to object to the sanctions, and if there was no outstanding opposition the council was set to go forward with the blacklisting. All 15 council members must approve the sanctions.
On Wednesday, the US state department denied accusations by Mr Saleh’s party that the US ambassador to Sanaa had given him until Friday to leave Yemen or face sanctions.
“There have been no meetings between the ambassador and GPC officials at which any such statements have been made,” a spokeswoman said.
Signs of a backlash were already forming, with the GPC – of which the current western and GCC-backed president Abdrabu Mansur Hadi is also a member – calling for demonstrations and a boycott of any new government if Mr Saleh is sanctioned.
If the the sanctions were meant to strengthen Mr Hadi’s weakened political position and bring a measure of stability to the upended transition, they may have the opposite effect, by fuelling the perception among Yemenis of unfair meddling by foreign powers and a loss of control by Mr Hadi.
“Saleh’s supporters would question why he should be singled out and not others like Ali Mohsen and Hamid Al Ahmar who also could be accused of being spoilers,” said Danya Greenfield, deputy director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, referring to Mr Saleh’s political opponents. “The risk is high because Saleh still has a lot of genuine support among Yemenis and within the GPC in particular.”
The likely intent of the sanctions is to try to force Mr Saleh to leave Yemen, which, if successful, would have “a powerful psychological impact” that would bolster the prospects of forming a new government, Ms Greenfield said.
However, the sanctions appear to be too little and at too late a stage in Mr Saleh’s reassertion of power and the Houthis’ rise to have much effect, analysts said.
“As the prospect of sanctions has been dangled in front of Saleh and others multiple times, but then not wielded, the value has been degraded,” Ms Greenfield said.
Any assets that Mr Saleh has that could be frozen would likely have been hidden, she said.
“And for the Houthi movement, an asset freeze and travel ban is hardly something that would deter further aggression.”
Left with few available tools to exert influence, the US pursuit of sanctions is a “long shot”, Ms Greenfield said.
“Unfortunately we have limited options.”
She said the US should work more closely with Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC, who have greater leverage in Yemeni politics, on implementing a September agreement between Yemeni political stakeholders and the Houthis on forming a new government, she added.
The prime minister who was selected as part of the deal has been unable to build broad support for a formula to form the new government, as fighting between Houthis, Al Qaeda and other Yemenis increases across the country.
Ms Greenfield said there was a need for the US, the UN, Saudi Arabia and others to reconsider what leverage they might have to move things in a more positive direction.
“This is a power struggle at its core, and the only solution is political negotiation,” she said. “The key is finding the pressure points and the interlocutors who have leverage.”
tkhan@thenational.ae
* With reporting by Reuters