NEW DELHI // Analysts have hailed the historic peace deal between the Indian government and insurgents in the north-eastern state of Nagaland, but say the real work of conflict resolution still lies ahead.
The accord, which comes after nearly two decades of negotiations to end the 60-year-long conflict, was signed in New Delhi on Monday by prime minister Narendra Modi and the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah). The group is known as NSCN-IM and incorporates the names of its two leaders, Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah.
NSCN-IM is a splinter of an earlier group, the NSCN. Mr Muivah, 81, who helped form the NSCN in 1980, signed the accord with Mr Modi. Mr Swu, 85, is in a New Delhi hospital with kidney disease.
In signing the deal, the NSCN-IM effectively gave up its demand for the formation of an independent state, Nagalim, comprising the areas in north-east India and Myanmar where the Naga people – an ethnic group made up of 17 tribes – now live.
Under the agreement, the borders of Nagaland will also remain the same, and not be enlarged to create a Greater Nagaland state. The NSCN-IM envisaged such a state incorporating Nagaland – where Nagas make up the ethnic majority – and Naga-inhabited areas in the bordering states of Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
In return, according to a report in the Indian Express newspaper, the peace agreement gives Naga tribes in Manipur a certain degree of autonomy, although no details about this autonomy have yet been released.
Among Indian states outside of Nagaland – where it is assumed that Nagas have the state government to represent them – Manipur has the highest population of Nagas, who have complained about feeling discriminated against by Manipuris. The NSCN-IM’s demands on behalf of Nagas in Manipur have often triggered protests in the state.
The accord is seen as a triumph for Mr Modi and previous governments that worked on the negotiations. But Sudeep Chakravarti, the author of Highway 39, a book dealing with the Nagaland conflict, says that while the deal is "very big", it does not mark an unqualified end to the conflict.
Although the NSCN-IM is the largest of the Naga separatist groups, and the largest armed group in India’s north-east, Mr Chakravarti pointed out that there are at least three other Naga insurgent outfits who have not been involved in the negotiations.
One of them, an NSCN splinter called NSCN-Khaplang, named after its leader S S Khaplang, has robust networks in the region and is suspected by the Indian government of being backed by China.
“I think everyone in Nagaland has only cautiously welcomed the declaration of August 3,” Mr Chakravarti said. “Nobody has accepted it as a resolution of conflict, period. It’s just a beginning of the actual work of resolving the conflict.”
Pradip Phanjoubam, editor of the Imphal Free Press, a newspaper published in the Manipur capital of Imphal, agreed.
Writing in The Wire, a news website, Mr Phanjoubam pointed out that Manipur’s government may have problems with any autonomy conferred upon Naga people living in the state.
While in addition, “the Nagas of Nagaland may resent the fact that they were dragged into four decades of turmoil for what, in the end, has turned out to be a deal that mostly benefits the Nagas of Manipur”, Mr Phanjoubam wrote.
But on Monday at least, both the prime minister and Mr Muivah seemed optimistic.
“The colonial rulers had, by design, kept the Nagas isolated and insulated,” Mr Modi said, referring to British rule of India.
“Today’s agreement is a shining example of what we can achieve when we deal with each other in a spirit of equality and respect, trust and confidence. We will not only try to heal wounds and resolve problems, but also be your partner as you restore your pride and prestige.”
For his part, Mr Muivah hailed Mr Modi’s “visionary leadership”.
“The Nagas will remember you for your statesmanship and your profound understanding of Nagas with warm heart for them,” he said. “On behalf of the Naga people, I want to assure you once again that the Nagas can be trustworthy and taken into confidence for any policy for the North-east.”
The separatist movement in Nagaland traces its roots to the Naga Club, a council of Nagas who in 1929 told India’s British rulers to “leave us alone to determine for ourselves as in ancient times”. In 1951, four years after India gained independence, a new body known as the Naga National Council claimed to have held a referendum in which 99 per cent of Nagas supported an independent Nagaland.
Naga separatism turned violent in the mid-1950s. In 1958, the then Indian prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, enacted a law that gave the army special powers to make arrests and conduct searches without warrants, and to fire “even to the causing of death” upon those suspected of breaking the law.
The first serious peace negotiations began in 1995, when then-prime minister P V Narasimha Rao met the leaders of the NSCN-IM in Paris. After more talks, the government and the NSCN-IM signed a ceasefire in July 1997 – a precursor to the nearly 80 rounds of further parleys that it took to arrive at Monday’s peace deal.
ssubramanian@thenational.ae
