DOHA // The crowd gathered at the Sheraton hotel in Qatar’s capital was hardly dashing. The international milieu of academics, government officials, and analysts were under no illusions that they could solve the Middle East’s many troubles. Nor did any of these individuals really hope that they would convince anyone that disagreed with them to change their point of view on one set of policies or another.
At least there was one overarching point of agreement: the Middle East is in serious trouble, and Washington’s ability to affect the region in a positive way is limited.
This was the scene at the 12th US-Islamic World Forum, which was held in Doha from June 1-3. Not pretty, but hardly dull, an apt reflection of the Middle East at the moment.
Hosted by the Brookings Institute, which has offices in both Washington and Doha, and Qatar’s foreign ministry, the meeting of Middle East influencers discussed the region’s most pressing issues. This included countering the attraction of the militant group ISIL and better understanding the United States and Saudi Arabia’s differences over the nuclear deal with Tehran, the deadline for which is only about three weeks off.
The Iran deal was perhaps the most heatedly debated issue. While Tehran’s point of view was considerably underrepresented at the conference, there were plenty of critics of the deal from both the US and GCC countries.
The Obama administration had sent Dr Colin Kahl, a national security adviser to vice president Joe Biden, to reiterate its case for why a deal makes sense for the US and, also, the Middle East.
At least one conference participant said Mr Kahl came off as condescending, and his arguments did seem stale, particularly since the issue of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons isn’t actually the main concern for Gulf states.
Instead, it is the trust deficit built up between the Obama administration and its closest allies, especially Saudi Arabia, that is closer to the heart of the disagreement. For some, the negotiations with Iran, which were kept secret from most GCC states (though Washington and Tehran were brought together by Oman’s Sultan Qaboos), have come to symbolise the years long decline in trust.
Arab Gulf states are also concerned that Iran will use the funds gained from sanctions relief to further expand its influence across the region. Mr Kahl said that while this concern is taken seriously, it is unclear how the money would be used. Iranians expect tangible benefits from the engagement with the international community, he said, and the additional finances could help prop up the suffering local economy. He also pointed out that Tehran would support its proxies in the region regardless of sanctions being lifted.
Participants at the conference from GCC states described a situation where Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Washington began to degrade when the Obama administration, in the eyes of Riyadh, withdrew support for Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak. There was further friction over how to handle the protests in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia and the UAE ended up sending in security forces to stop the demonstrations. Then, it emerged that the US was holding secret talks with Iran, their main rival.
More recently, the US is perceived as pursuing contradictory policies in Iraq and Yemen: fighting on the same side as Iranian-backed Shiite militias against ISIL in Iraq, while at the same time aiding a Saudi Arabia-led coalition that is bombing Houthi rebels in Yemen who have received aid from Iran.
Today, the public does not know if Gulf leaders are convinced there is not a “grand bargain” between the US and Iran, as the Obama administration has assured.
Even if they are convinced, the decades-long relationship has taken a significant blow and it is doubtful whether it will be fully repaired even if the nuclear deal with Iran is successful. “Yesterday, Iran was an enemy, today a partner. We don’t know how far this will go,” said a participant from a Gulf state.
Not discussed in any great detail at the forum was the effect of Gulf states pursuing more overtly militarised policies as they settle into the reality of a more distant Washington.
The results are already being seen in places such as Yemen and north-west Syria, where Riyadh has lent support to its allies.
At this year’s forum, the chaos in these places was examined by participants. All appeared ready to dissect more of the same next year.
jvela@thenational.ae