TEL AVIV // Israel is not likely to give up what is believed to be a sizeable nuclear arsenal despite an Arab-led resolution backed by the 189 signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) calling for a 2012 conference on establishing a nuclear-free Middle East. Michael Warschawski, an Israeli analyst and founder of the Jerusalem-based Alternative Information Centre, an Israeli-Palestinian advocacy group, said Israel, believed to be the region's only nuclear power, can still count on the support of the United States, its key ally, for keeping its nuclear arms.
He said: "Nothing will happen in 2012 because Israel doesn't want it to happen. Also, we are still very far from the time that the US will pressure Israel to get rid of its nuclear arms. We are more at a stage of the US issuing Israel a polite and friendly warning that says, 'look, our interests are for a world free of nuclear weapons'." Nevertheless, Israel's failure to persuade Washington to oppose the resolution signals that its influence on US policy may be waning. Mr Warschawski added: "The Israelis are very worried about a turn in American policy. It seems that the Americans are putting their national interest above Israeli demands."
Indeed, the approach of the administration of Barack Obama, the US president, is a break from the administration of George W Bush. The last NPT summit in 2005 collapsed, partly because of Mr Bush's opposition to a ban on nuclear testing, as well as what Israeli media reported to be his disapproval of adding in the draft document a call for Israel to join the NPT. Now, "Israel can feel sacrificed by the US on the altar of a successful conference", Yossi Melman, a veteran commentator for the liberal Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz, wrote yesterday.
Nevertheless, Melman wrote, the Obama administration has reiterated past understandings - both verbal and written - between Israel and the United States, including the fact that Israel will not be forced into the NPT. Furthermore, according to Melman, Mr Obama has also accepted Israel's stance that a nuclear-free Middle East would only follow an agreement by all countries in the region to recognise Israel's right to exist, sign peace agreements, enter into security arrangements and limit conventional arsenals as well as non-conventional weapons.
Last week White House officials made it clear that the UN proposal may go nowhere because the Middle East could not be declared a nuclear-free zone until Israeli-Palestinian peace prevailed and until Iran ceased advancing its uranium-enrichment plans. Israel has long refused to confirm or deny the existence of its nuclear programme, and its so-called policy of ambiguity on the issue is a pillar of its military deterrence.
Over the years, it has simply repeated that it would not "introduce" nuclear weapons to the Middle East, leaving it unclear whether it would not create or would not use the weapons. Israel, which is believed to possess at least 75 nuclear warheads, has never signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which requires signatories to make nuclear facilities available to inspection and to disarm. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, is due to discuss Friday's UN resolution with Mr Obama when they meet in Washington tomorrow. Mr Netanyahu is particularly concerned about losing US support for Israel's nuclear programme, which he views as a key deterrent against the nuclear ambitions of archenemy Iran.
Mr Netanyahu has demanded aggressive international action be taken against Iran's nuclear activities, and has hinted that Israel could strike Iran to curb its programme. The latest sign came yesterday, as The Sunday Times in London said three German-built Israeli submarines, equipped with nuclear cruise missiles, are to be deployed in the Gulf near the Iranian coastline to act as a deterrent and gather intelligence. According to the paper, Israel has decided to ensure a permanent presence of at least one of the submarines at a time in the area. The report cited an unidentified navy officer as saying that the 1,500km range of the submarines' cruise missiles "can reach any target in Iran".
Mr Netanyahu is expected to ask Mr Obama for guarantees that Washington will block any moves to advance the UN conference resolution. Analysts said Mr Obama might use the White House's critical support for Israel's nuclear policy as leverage to persuade the country to make concessions in the current US-mediated talks between Israel and the Palestinians. @Email:foreign.desk@thenational.ae