There have been calls for urgent talks to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran, despite Tehran attacking the French foreign minister's claim that it was building nuclear weapons as "absurd nonsense".
Two days before Joe Biden is sworn in as US president, there are increasing signs that he will attempt to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement that was meant to restrict Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Despite heavy sanctions from President Donald Trump’s administration after the US left the deal in 2018, Iran has continued to enrich uranium as part of its efforts to make a nuclear bomb.
Leading academics told The National that a deal should be negotiated to include restrictions on Iran's ballistic missiles and terrorism sponsorship in return for lifting sanctions and readmitting it into the international community.
"They've got to act quickly because otherwise Iran is heading towards a nuclear weapon breakout and that's something that nobody can afford," said Dr Alan Mendoza, director of the Henry Jackson Society.
“The Iranians have systematically breached every single one of JCPOA’s main provisions so the idea that we can simply return to the 2015 deal is ludicrous, because they are substantially further down the path to their nuclear endpoint.”
His words came after Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif dismissed a claim by France's Jean-Yves Le Drian that Tehran was in the process of building up its nuclear weapons. "Avoid absurd nonsense about Iran," he tweeted, tagging Mr Le Drian.
Germany, France and Britain have remained in JCPOA, an agreement that some commentators regard as no longer functioning.
Mr Biden's European allies will hope his US administration acts before Iran's nuclear programme becomes unstoppable and also before the staging of elections in Iran this year that could bring in a more hard-line government.
“The Iranians will try to exert a price for being brought back into negotiations that will mean getting rid of the Trump sanctions immediately,” said Prof Michael Clarke of the Royal United Services Institute.
“I think the Iranians will be prepared to go back into the nuclear part of JCPOA, because they could live with that in terms of a 10-year moratorium on development, but they’ll have trouble agreeing to real restrictions on their ballistic missile development.”
One trade-off for Iran will be greater recognition of its regional role by Europe, US and Middle East powers.
Dr Mendoza, who condemned Iran for “systematically breaching” JCPOA, hoped Mr Biden’s plan would be a modified version of the 2015 deal with “more serious strictures on making sure that Iran actually has to roll back” its nuclear programme.
“This deal also has to last in perpetuity, not merely for a period of time,” he said. “That type of deal will have a lot more support than the original plan. If it doesn’t, then we are going to see a very emboldened Iran and a lot of consternation with America’s allies in the Gulf and in Israel.”
He called the negotiations a "high stakes” first major foreign policy test for the Biden administration. “Some in Iran will be saying, ‘here’s our chance to break out of this isolation and do something very different’, but there’s a strong hardline element who will be pushing the other way, saying, ‘well, Biden’s weak, let’s keep on doing what we’re doing because we’re going to win’.”
Analysts believe there will be a narrow window of opportunity between Mr Biden taking office on Wednesday, January 20, and Iran's presidential election five months later. "The cleanest, easiest and simplest option is a mutual return to the JCPOA," Ilan Goldenberg of the Centre for a New American Security told The Economist.
Prof Clarke said it was Europe's "dirty little secret" that JCPOA had been restricted to the nuclear proliferation issue. "The Iranians will want a more general deal because they want some legitimacy for their role as a regional power. So there may be a trade-off there which the US could explore."
Reports from Israel suggest that Mr Biden’s administration has already begun low-level discussions with Iran on a return to the 2015 nuclear deal. Israel and the Gulf region will also want to see limitations on both Tehran’s ballistic missile programme and its support for terrorism as part of any wider deal.
Iran has said it could welcome the return of the Americans to the agreement, but only after they lift sanctions. It has, however, rejected negotiation on other issues.
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%3Cp%3EDavid%20White%20might%20be%20new%20to%20the%20country%2C%20but%20he%20has%20clearly%20already%20built%20up%20an%20affinity%20with%20the%20place.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20the%20UAE%20shocked%20Pakistan%20in%20the%20semi-final%20of%20the%20Under%2019%20Asia%20Cup%20last%20month%2C%20White%20was%20hugged%20on%20the%20field%20by%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20the%20team%E2%80%99s%20captain.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EWhite%20suggests%20that%20was%20more%20a%20sign%20of%20Aayan%E2%80%99s%20amiability%20than%20anything%20else.%20But%20he%20believes%20the%20young%20all-rounder%2C%20who%20was%20part%20of%20the%20winning%20Gulf%20Giants%20team%20last%20year%2C%20is%20just%20the%20sort%20of%20player%20the%20country%20should%20be%20seeking%20to%20produce%20via%20the%20ILT20.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20is%20a%20delightful%20young%20man%2C%E2%80%9D%20White%20said.%20%E2%80%9CHe%20played%20in%20the%20competition%20last%20year%20at%2017%2C%20and%20look%20at%20his%20development%20from%20there%20till%20now%2C%20and%20where%20he%20is%20representing%20the%20UAE.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20was%20influential%20in%20the%20U19%20team%20which%20beat%20Pakistan.%20He%20is%20the%20perfect%20example%20of%20what%20we%20are%20all%20trying%20to%20achieve%20here.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20about%20the%20development%20of%20players%20who%20are%20going%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE%20and%20go%20on%20to%20help%20make%20UAE%20a%20force%20in%20world%20cricket.%E2%80%9D%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
Key fixtures from January 5-7
Watford v Bristol City
Liverpool v Everton
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth v AFC Fylde or Wigan
Coventry v Stoke City
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
Manchester United v Derby
Forest Green or Exeter v West Brom
Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon
Fleetwood or Hereford v Leicester City
Manchester City v Burnley
Shrewsbury v West Ham United
Wolves v Swansea City
Newcastle United v Luton Town
Fulham v Southampton
Norwich City v Chelsea
Read more about the coronavirus
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
More from Neighbourhood Watch
List of alleged parties
- May 15 2020: Boris Johnson is said to have attended a Downing Street pizza party
- 27 Nov 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
- Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
- Dec 13 2020: Mr Johnson and his then-fiancee Carrie Symonds throw a flat party
- Dec 14 2020: Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative Party headquarters
- Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
- Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
Read more from Johann Chacko
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Wonka
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The flights: South African Airways flies from Dubai International Airport with a stop in Johannesburg, with prices starting from around Dh4,000 return. Emirates can get you there with a stop in Lusaka from around Dh4,600 return.
The details: Visas are available for 247 Zambian kwacha or US$20 (Dh73) per person on arrival at Livingstone Airport. Single entry into Victoria Falls for international visitors costs 371 kwacha or $30 (Dh110). Microlight flights are available through Batoka Sky, with 15-minute flights costing 2,265 kwacha (Dh680).
Accommodation: The Royal Livingstone Victoria Falls Hotel by Anantara is an ideal place to stay, within walking distance of the falls and right on the Zambezi River. Rooms here start from 6,635 kwacha (Dh2,398) per night, including breakfast, taxes and Wi-Fi. Water arrivals cost from 587 kwacha (Dh212) per person.
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
About Proto21
Date started: May 2018
Founder: Pir Arkam
Based: Dubai
Sector: Additive manufacturing (aka, 3D printing)
Staff: 18
Funding: Invested, supported and partnered by Joseph Group
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Heather, the Totality
Matthew Weiner,
Canongate
