Mahmoud Abbas to stand again for Palestinian Authority presidency

Experts say unchanged status quo in Gaza and West Bank diminishes likelihood of elections

Palestinian protesters wave flags as Israeli troops take position during a protest against Jewish settlements in the West Bank village of Nabi Saleh, near Ramallah. Reuters

Now that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has secured a new term in office, there’s little to prevent him from annexing large parts of the West Bank as early as this summer. AP

An Israeli soldier stands guard during a tour made by Israeli parliament members in the Jordan Valley near the Jewish settlement of Maale Efrayim. Reuters

Israeli soldiers take position as Palestinian demonstrators gather during a protest against expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. AP

King Abdullah (r) of Transjordan on May 13, 1948 in Amman with Abed Al Rahman Azzam, the secretary general of the Arab League and Abd Al Elah Ibn Ali, the Prince Regent of Iraq, the day before the beginning of the first Arab-Israeli War. AFP

Palestinians surrender to Israeli soldiers in June 1967 in the occupied territory of the West Bank after Israel launched a pre-emptive attack on Egypt and Syria and seized the Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights in Syria as well as the West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem. AFP

A Palestinian child plays in a refugee camp in Jordan on June 23, 1967. AFP

PLO chairman Yasser Arafat delivers a speech to the Palestine National Council meeting to make the historic proclamation of a Palestinian state in the Israeli-occupied territories and to recognize Israel in the Palace of Nations conference hall on November 12, 1988, in Algiers. AFP

US President Bill Clinton stands between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzahk Rabin as they shake hands for the first time on September 13, 1993 at the White House. AFP

Hussein Ibn Talal, King of Jordan and Israeli Premier Yitzhak Rabin shake hands after they exchanged the documents of the Peace Treaty at Beit Gabriel conference centre on November 10, 1994 on the southern shore of the Sea of Galilee. AFP

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaks during the Palestinian leadership meeting and threatened to end security coordination with Israel and the United States, saying Israeli annexation would ruin chances for peace. AFP

Houses in the Israeli settlement of settlement of Kedumim are seen in the foreground as part of the Palestinian city of Nablus is seen in the background (far left) in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Reuters

Israel's controversial concrete barrier (C) separating the Jewish settlement of Neve Yaakov (foreground) in the northern part of east Jerusalem and the Palestinian area of al-Ram (background) in the occupied West Bank. AFP

An Israeli activist holds a banner during a protest against the US peace plan for the Middle East, in front of the US ambassador's residence in Jerusalem, on May 15, 2020, as Palestinians commemorate the 72nd anniversary of the 1948 Nakba or "catastrophe". AFP

A Palestinian shepherd tends to his camels on arid land considered to be in "Area C" (under Israeli security and administrative control), southeast of Yatta town in the southern West Bank district of Hebron. AFP

A general view of the Israeli settlement of Elon Moreh, as seen from the Palestinian village of Azmout near the West Bank City of Nablus. EPA

The West Bank Jewish settlement of Maale Michmash. AP

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will be Fatah's candidate for the presidency in the presidential elections, Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh said in a televised interview on Wednesday.

Mr Abbas, 85, has repeatedly said he would not seek re-election. But logistical challenges and a political stalemate in the occupied Palestinian territories will diminish the likelihood that presidential and parliamentary elections will be held, experts said.

Mr Abbas said the Palestinian Authority will hold legislative and presidential elections in May and July successively for the first time in 15 years.

But Palestinian watchers are sceptical that such polls will take place.

Fatah, which controls the West Bank-based PA, and its Islamist rival Hamas, which controls Gaza, are "not interested in relinquishing their authority or giving up meaningful security control", Ghaith Al Omari, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told The National.

This long-standing stalemate since Hamas's win in the 2006 parliamentary elections and its takeover of Gaza a year later are some reasons why plans for elections have repeatedly fallen through, Mr Al Omari said.

Additionally, Israel could bar Palestinians from voting in East Jerusalem, another event that could derail the elections.

“Keep in mind that all this is happening when Israel is on the eve of its own elections in March – the fourth in two years – and nobody campaigns on looking soft,” Mr Al Omari said.

“Israel is probably not going to co-operate in these Palestinian elections and not just in East Jerusalem but potentially in the West Bank – because they still have to facilitate the movement of election monitors there,” he said.

Gaza-based political analyst Hani Habib told The National he believes international pressure on Israel to support the elections will mount.

“There will be lot of pressure on Israel to facilitate the election operation, despite some problems that could erupt in Jerusalem,” he said.

On Saturday, the European Union expressed support for the elections and called on Israel to co-operate in supporting them.

“The EU stands ready to engage with relevant actors to support the electoral process. The EU also calls on Israeli authorities to facilitate the holding of elections across all the Palestinian territory,” said Peter Stano, the EU spokesman for foreign affairs and security policy.

Mr Habib said he believes the chances of a presidential election succeeding are greater than those of a legislative election.

Although some mechanisms such as electronic voting or setting up voting stations outside Jerusalem might provide a workaround for the elections to go ahead, Mr Al Omari believes the Palestinian Authority could use the issue in East Jerusalem as an “easy way out” of the elections.

Additionally, if the elections occurred, a Hamas win would pose many problems, not only for the US administration – which under president Donald Trump cut back ties to the Palestinian government and recognises Hamas as a terrorist group – but to neighbouring Jordan and Egypt, which share borders with the West Bank and Gaza respectively.

“Palestinian elections are not only a Palestinian right but a regional and international demand to prepare for new negotiations with Israel, especially as the new US administration arrives,” Mr Habib said.

But mistrust not only between rival factions but between the Palestinians and their political representatives poses a problem that could lead to a lower turnout of voters if the elections do come through, Mr Habib said.