Khatami criticises Tehran's rhetoric

Iran's former president criticises his successor, fuelling speculation that he may enter next year's presidential elections.

Speculation abounds that the former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, could enter next year's presidential elections.

Mohammad Khatami, Iran's former president, has robustly criticised the confrontational foreign policy and inflationary economic measures of his successor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, intensifying speculation in Tehran that Mr Khatami is preparing to contest next's year's presidential elections. Some analysts believe that only Mr Khatami, a charismatic philosopher-politician who attempted to liberalise Iranian politics and society during his eight years in power, could present a serious challenge to the hardline incumbent.

Many western and Arab diplomats in Tehran hoping for an end to Iran's nuclear standoff with the United States would love to see the former president back at the helm. Mr Khatami, who speaks Arabic, English and passable German as well as his native Farsi, championed a "dialogue of civilisations" during his two four-year terms in office from 1997 to 2005. He attempted to reach out to the United States and improved relations with Gulf Arab states.

Mr Ahmadinejad's approach ran counter to these diplomatic successes with strident attacks on Israel and fiery anti-US rhetoric that heightened international concerns about the intention of Tehran's cherished nuclear programme. "Aggressive and sharp slogans play into the enemy's hands to hurt the country and the system," said Mr Khatami, who is also a mid-ranking cleric. "Fighting the arrogance of [the United States] should not mean increasing the costs of running the country."

In remarks carried by Iranian newspapers yesterday, he also hit out at his successor's administration for "presenting wrong statistics" about its economic achievements over the past three years. Mr Ahmadinejad came to power in 2005 promising to give the poor a fairer share of Iran's oil wealth. But since his election victory, inflation has soared to 27 per cent from 12 per cent, hitting the less well-off the most.

Mr Khatami has refused to say whether he will contest the elections, which are set for June 12, but he has not ruled out running. He was reluctant to stand for a second term in 2001 - which he easily won - and is said to have serious reservations about contesting next year's polls. Fellow reformists say a sense of duty could persuade him to do so. Equally, however, it is believed he would stand aside if he was quietly dissuaded from running by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who recently appeared to urge Mr Ahmadinejad to seek a second term.

In the light of that controversial endorsement, Mr Khatami's criticism of the president could be viewed as an attempt to boost the morale of the fractured reformist camp. Instead of running, Mr Khatami could play the role of kingmaker, helping to reunite the reformers behind a common presidential contender, some Iranian commentators believe. Two other reformers, both clerics, have emerged as potential candidates. They are Mehdi Karrubi, a former parliamentary speaker, and Abdullah Nouri, a former interior minister who was forced out of office and jailed by hardline opponents during Mr Khatami's presidency.

"But Khatami's the only obvious figure with national standing among the reformists," said Michael Axworthy, an Iran analyst at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at Exeter University in England and former head of the Iran desk at Britain's foreign office. Another potential presidential candidate who has a foot in both the reformist and conservative camps is Hassan Rowhani, a mid-ranking cleric and Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator, who once agreed temporarily to suspend uranium enrichment. He accused Mr Ahmadinejad last week of missing "golden opportunities" for growth offered by the high oil prices of the last year.

Echoing Mr Khatami, he urged the government to pursue a "policy of détente" with the international community. "Careless comments and slogans have inflicted enormous costs on the country and the people," he said. Iranians twice gave Mr Khatami an overwhelming mandate to bring greater personal and political freedom. But a hardline minority, whose power lay beyond the ballot box, exploited its control of key institutions, in particular the judiciary, to thwart his attempts to move from an authoritarian theocracy towards a modern Islamic democracy.

By the time Mr Ahmadinejad won his surprise landslide victory in 2005, the incremental gains under Mr Khatami's tenure, which included significant cultural glasnost, were mostly lost on a young and restless populace. "But he's still popular despite the disillusionment over his presidency. Many people realise he's a good person who did his best under difficult circumstances and who was constantly blocked by other elements in the system," Mr Axworthy said in an interview.

That disillusionment, however, is still strong among former supporters such as Hossein Derakhshan, who became one of Iran's most influential bloggers after reformist newspapers he wrote for were closed down by Mr Khatami's hardline opponents. He is critical of Mr Khatami, not just for failing to deliver on promises of liberalising the state's affairs, but for ignoring pressing domestic issues that affected most ordinary Iranians.

Mr Khatami's free market economic policies, he says, benefited only the educated, upper middle-classes, making it easy for Mr Ahmadinejad to trounce the reformists with his promises of delivery social justice. "Khatami's still a respected person because he appears as tolerant and softly spoken. But he didn't strike many as competent enough in terms of real governance of issues of this big country - such as the broken tax and wasteful subsidies systems, high corruption, widening income gap and rising unemployment," Mr Derakhshan said. "I don't think he'll run because he'll be too concerned about the harsh criticism he'll inevitably face and he's not so sure he would win."

There is, however, a long way to go until June 12 and Iranian presidential elections are notoriously unpredictable. Few anticipated Mr Khatami's victory in 1997 - and even fewer Mr Ahmadinejad's three years ago. [e-mail]