KIRKUK // Long-simmering tensions between Iraq's Arabs and Kurds look set to increase in the aftermath of last week's national elections, with Kurdish groups already calling the vote a mini-referendum that proves their right to take full control over Kirkuk.
As ballot counting continues in Baghdad, the Kurdistani list, a powerful alliance uniting the KDP and PUK parties, is claiming to have won at least six of the 12 parliamentary seats allocated to Kirkuk province.
Other Kurd coalitions and allied minority parties are also on course to take seats, making the Kurdish political establishment confident it will hold a majority in Kirkuk. Even the Kurds' opponents are admitting the inevitability of a Kurdish electoral victory here, although they insist it will be by a narrow margin.
Ever since the Iraqi constitution was passed in 2005, the Kurds have been insistent that a referendum be held over the status of Kirkuk, in which residents would be allowed to choose whether the city be administered from Baghdad or from Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish autonomous region.
That referendum, enshrined in Article 140 of the constitution, has never been held, to the anger and frustration of the Kurdish parties, who are certain it would find in their favour.
In the absence of a full referendum, the Kurdistani list now says the March 7 elections have served as a successful mini-referendum, one confirming their dominance over Kirkuk in a vote that has been given an international seal of approval. The United Nations has repeatedly insisted that the election was fair, despite persistent allegations of fraud.
"The election makes it clear that Kirkuk is Kurdish; no one can dispute that now, the facts are there," said Mala Sirwan of the PUK, who contested the ballot in Kirkuk and who expects to take a seat in the next parliament in Baghdad when final tallies are compiled at the end of the month.
"The message from the voters is clear; this has been a referendum on Kirkuk and the democratic outcome is that it belongs to the Kurds. We have proved what we always said: Kirkuk is Kurds, it belongs to the Kurds, not to the Arabs."
Under the laws governing the March 7 election, the results from Kirkuk are specifically not supposed to influence final status negotiations over the city. When the law was finally passed in November, the US ambassador to Iraq, Christopher Hill, said Washington's position was also that it should "not be used to solve the Kirkuk question".
Kurdish officials, however, see the results as providing hard democratic legitimacy to their claims for the city, moving them one step closer to realising their dream of annexing it to the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG).
"Certainly this proves Kirkuk is a majority Kurd city," said Najat Manmi, head of the KDP's Kirkuk branch. "We have also shown we can have a peaceful and fair election which means there is no reason to delay any longer the implementation of Article 140 and the referendum.
"If they [the federal government] don't have a referendum, it is going to create damage for everyone in Iraq."
Assertions that the March 7 election was free from widespread fraud have been questioned by various Iraqi political parties, including the Iraqiyya alliance, a secular coalition led by Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister. On Thursday it produced what it said was evidence of voting irregularities, including photos of ballot papers they said had been left in the grounds of a Kirkuk school.
Iraqiyya, together with other nationalist political groups, has insisted that as an Iraqi city, Kirkuk should not be controlled by the KRG but by Baghdad.
"The Kurdish won a majority in Kirkuk; we can't deny that and we do accept it," said Mohammad Tneem, who stood for election in Kirkuk as part of Iraqiyya. "But they did not win a large majority and we were close behind them.
"It is absolutely wrong for them to say this was a referendum over Kirkuk. It was a national election with many other issues at stake. And it certainly does not give them the right to claim the city."
Mr Tneem repeated assertions made by the Kurds' opponents that, since 2003, Erbil has shipped in tens of thousands of non-residents to Kirkuk, in an act of demographic warfare designed to establish a clear Kurdish majority.
The Kurds dispute the allegation, saying only a small proportion of families displaced by Saddam Hussein's Arabisation programme - which moved Arabs into the city and forced many Kurds to leave - have returned.
Concerns over dubious electoral rolls were recognised in the election law and, as such, the results for Kirkuk can be subjected to a special review during the next 12 months, if demanded by political parties.
It is the argument over demographics that has made the Article 140-stipulated referendum such a dangerous political conundrum for Iraq. After the 2003 US-led invasion, Kurdish forces wasted little time in pushing south of the old green line that had marked their frontier with Arab-controlled zones.
Kurdish peshmerga [militia] forces moved into Kirkuk, and also took over large parts of Ninewah and Diyala province, areas the Kurds say are historically theirs and that should therefore be part of the autonomous KRG region.
Kirkuk, sitting on billions of dollars' worth of oil reserves, remains the focal point of these disputed territories. Arab-Kurd tensions rose to such a level that US military officials feared the outbreak of a civil war and, to prevent that happening, Barack Obama last year deployed an extra division of troops to Kirkuk.
That helped prevent a shooting war, but did nothing to tackle the underlying issues of competing Kurdish and Arab-Iraqi nationalisms. Erbil claims territory for the Kurds that Baghdad insists belongs to the whole of Iraq.
UN mediators remain involved in the disputed territories issue, and proposals have been made for Kirkuk to be granted a special status, administered neither by Baghdad or Erbil.
The potential for violence remains. In Baghdad's Sadr City, a former commander of the Mahdi Army, a Shiite militia that once fought US and Iraqi government forces, said it had thousands of fighters ready to oppose any Kurdish attempts to claim the city.
"We will never accept Kirkuk as a Kurdish city and we will liberate Kirkuk, by force, if that becomes necessary," Abu Zahrar said. "The Kurdish peshmerga are cowards and they always run from Kirkuk if an Arab army faces them.
"I do not think it will reach that point. The Americans, Syrians, Iranians and Turks will stop the Kurds from having Kirkuk. They are crazy if they think they will get it."
@Email:psands@thenational.ae
nlatif@thenational.ae
Nizar Latif reported from Baghdad
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Results
Ashraf Ghani 50.64 per cent
Abdullah Abdullah 39.52 per cent
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar 3.85 per cent
Rahmatullah Nabil 1.8 per cent
Company%20Profile
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
'Morbius'
Director: Daniel Espinosa
Stars: Jared Leto, Matt Smith, Adria Arjona
Rating: 2/5
Teenage%20Mutant%20Ninja%20Turtles%3A%20Shredder's%20Revenge
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I Care A Lot
Directed by: J Blakeson
Starring: Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage
3/5 stars
MATCH INFO
Liverpool 0
Stoke City 0
Man of the Match: Erik Pieters (Stoke)
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
Company%20Profile
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THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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Naga
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth
THE BIO
Favourite holiday destination: Whenever I have any free time I always go back to see my family in Caltra, Galway, it’s the only place I can properly relax.
Favourite film: The Way, starring Martin Sheen. It’s about the Camino de Santiago walk from France to Spain.
Personal motto: If something’s meant for you it won’t pass you by.
Company%20Profile
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
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SPECS
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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