Iran coronavirus death toll nearly double official tally, says parliament report

Report also suggests positive cases are 'eight to 10 times' higher than the reported 76,389

A man walks next to buildings where people stay home in Tehran, Iran on March 26, 2020. WANA / Reuters

A member of Iranian Red Crescent tests people with possible coronavirus Covid-19 symptoms, as police blocked Tehran to Alborz highway. AFP

A member of Iranian Red Crescent tests passengers of a bus for possible coronavirus Covid-19 symptoms, as police blocked Tehran to Alborz highway. EPA

A member of Iranian Red Crescent tests people with possible coronavirus Covid-19 symptoms, as police blocked Tehran to Alborz highway. AFP

Iranian Red Crescents personnel rest in a tent. EPA

Members of Iranian Red Crescent get themselves disinfected after testing people for possible coronavirus Covid-19 symptoms. EPA

A man jumps rope at Valiasr street in Tehran. WANA / Reuters

An Iranian army soldier walks past rows of beds at a temporary 2,000-bed hospital for COVID-19 coronavirus patients set up by the army at the international exhibition center in northern Tehran. AP Photo

People in protective clothing work in a temporary 2,000-bed hospital for COVID-19 coronavirus patients set up by the Iranian army. AP Photo

A person in protective clothing walks through a temporary 2,000-bed hospital for COVID-19 coronavirus patients. AP Photo

A member of the Iranian Army works at a temporary hospital in Tehran. AP Photo

A statue wearing a protective face mask is pictured at Azadi square, in Tehran. WANA / Reuters

Iranian workers set a temporary emergency hospital in a part of the world's largest shopping mall complex called 'Iran Mall'. EPA

The facility is to treat patients infected with the COVID-19 disease, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, in north-west of the capital of Tehran. EPA

According to the latest report by the Ministry of Health, there are at least 21,638 confirmed cases of coronavirus infections and 1,685 people have died from the virus throughout Iran. EPA

An Iranian woman health inspector checks a temporary emergency hospital in 'Iran Mall'. EPA

A general view of a temporary emergency hospital in a part of the world's largest shopping mall complex called 'Iran Mall'. EPA

Iranian workers set up a makeshift hospital inside the Iran Mall, northwest of Tehran. AFP

Iran is one of the countries most affected by the devastating pandemic of the coronavirus. EPA

Iran said that 123 more people had died from coronavirus, raising the official death toll to 1,556 in the Islamic Republic, one of the world's worst affected countries. AFP

Altogether, more than half of the 18 Iraqi provinces announced curfews for several days in the hopes it could contain the new coronavirus outbreak. AFP

The real death toll from Iran’s coronavirus pandemic is likely to be nearly double the official toll of just under 5,000, a parliament report has alleged.

Iranian health officials offered no comment on the report, which represents the highest-level official accusation to date that the country’s figures are questionable, something long suspected by international experts.

Iran on Wednesday put the death toll at 4,777, out of 76,389 confirmed cases of the virus – still making it the Middle East’s worst outbreak by far.

The 46-page report by Iran’s parliament research centre, published online, carries the weight of being written by nonpartisan experts within the country.

The explosive charge was merely a footnote on page 6 in what appeared to be an otherwise routine report.

It said Health Ministry toll counts only those who died in hospitals and had already tested positive for the virus.

That disregarded all coronavirus victims who died in their homes. The report also said that widespread testing hasn’t been done in Iran and so tens of thousands of cases are being missed.

It suggested the true death toll in Iran is probably at least 80 per cent higher than the current 4,777.

As far as the positive cases are involved, and given the under-testing, the number of people infected is probably “eight to 10 times” higher than the reported 76,389, the report said.

If correct, the worst-case figures would put Iran’s death toll at 8,500, with some 760,000 total cases.

That would catapult Iran to the country with the highest number of infections in the world.

The US – currently the country with the highest number of cases – has over 600,000 confirmed cases, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University, though experts believe that number likely is larger as well.

“In order to have more compatibility between protocol and estimated statistics, it is necessary to increase laboratory and testing capabilities in the country,” the report said. “Needless to say that through increasing the capacities, diagnosis of disease will be more possible and spread of the disease will be more limited.”

International experts long have suggested that Iran’s numbers are suspect as its mortality appeared higher than other nations. While other countries also have seen rapidly rising caseloads, Iran’s reported numbers have so far been a gradual slope.

The report also accused authorities of not providing its authors with “detailed figures” over the disease. It also warned that more than 30,000 people could die if strict quarantine measures aren’t taken.

The report, released earlier this week, comes as Iranian President Hassan Rouhani continues to push for a slow reopening of the country’s economy, which remains targeted by crushing US sanctions. If its own figures offered to the World Health Organization are wrong, it adds to fears by some that encouraging people to return to work will spark a second wave of infections.

Already, hard-liners have seized on Mr Rouhani’s handling of the pandemic to criticise him and his administration, which is held in poor regard after his 2015 nuclear deal with world powers collapsed due to President Donald Trump’s move that unilaterally withdrew the US from the accord.

Last week, MP Reza Shiran from the north-east holy city of Mashhad, said that there had “been no correct reporting on the death toll.”

He alleged official reports instead labelled deaths as coming from an “acute respiratory syndrome.”

Deputy Health Minister Ali Reza Raisi on Wednesday acknowledged that the “limits of testing” faced by Iran means it doesn’t have accurate figures of all those infected.

“The real figures are more than the official statistics but it is not correct to multiply official figures by two or three,” he said, without elaborating or directly addressing the parliament report.

Also on Wednesday, Iran cancelled ceremonies marking the anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic over virus concerns, the official IRNA news agency reported.

The move to already cancel the ceremony in early June underscores the expectation of Iranian officials that the crisis will go on for several more weeks.