France’s Macron still has work to do to win presidential election

The centrist candidate may have come out on top in the first round of voting, but he can't rely on picking up all of the votes of other non-Le Pen candidates, writes Colin Randall in Nice.

French centrist presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, left, is greeted by school children as he leaves his apartment in Paris on April 24, 2017. Thibault Camus / AP Photo

NICE // Europe heaved a sigh of relief on Monday after the first round of France’s presidential elections put the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron in pole position to become head of state in the deciding poll on May 7.

The euro rallied against the dollar as markets joined political leaders in recognising the significance of voters’ narrow rejection of a potentially calamitous battle between far right and far left, both hostile to the European Union, for the presidency.

Marine Le Pen, 48, representing the extreme right with her anti-immigration, protectionist policies, qualified for the run-off. Ms Le Pen attracted a record 7.6 million votes and led the poll in half the municipal districts of France.

But Mr Macron, 39, grabbed the largest share of the vote because he won substantial support in the cities and bigger towns.

Heavyweights across the political mainstream urged voters to ensure his victory, as the first opinion poll after his first round victory predicted a comfortable win in the run-off – 62 per cent against 38.

The outgoing socialist president Francois Hollande announced on Monday he would vote for Mr Macron as part of what he hoped would be a unified front against the extreme right and the risk it posed, in his view, to the French economy.

France’s Muslim community, Europe’s biggest, is thought to have voted in large numbers for Mr Macron, according to the state-owned France Info radio station.

But the far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon also did well in Muslim-dominated districts, heading the poll with up to 36 per cent of the vote in some Parisian suburbs and districts such as Venissieux, near Lyons.

Final figures showed Mr Macron won 23.9 per cent of votes, while Ms Le Pen garnered 21.4 per cent. The conventional centre-right candidate Francois Fillon, wounded by his allegedly fictitious employment of family members, paid from public funds, was pushed into third place on 19.9 per cent, fractionally ahead of Mr Melenchon.

For Mr Fillon, defeat was a total humiliation. Once he refused to stand aside when placed under formal criminal investigation, it was clear he was fighting an uphill battle.

But in the case of Mr Melenchon, it would have taken only a recognition among fringe left candidates that he was their best chance of victory to equal Ms Le Pen’s score. Had the hopelessly sidelined official socialist candidate Benoit Hamon withdrawn in his favour, Ms Le Pen would theoretically have been eliminated.

The result left France with a decisive run-off, unprecedented in modern history, between two candidates from outside the traditional left-right party system.

“The French people must seize this opportunity, because the enormous challenge of this election is the wild globalisation that endangers our civilisation,” Ms Le Pen said as supporters feted her accession to the second round in the northern stronghold of Henin-Beaumont. She would be France’s first female president if elected.

Voters now had to choose, Ms Le Pen declared, between a “France with borders” and a France of unfair international competition, mass immigration and the free circulation of terrorists.

But Mr Macron basked in the extraordinary rise that put him on the brink of the presidency only a year after he left Mr Hollande’s government, which he served as unelected economy minster, to promote his own movement, En marche (Forward).

“We have changed the face of French politics,” he told his exuberant supporters in Paris. “The challenge is to break with a system that has been unable to address our country’s problem for more than 30 years.”

A committed European, Mr Macron pledged to be a president who “protects, transforms and builds”, offering hope for a strong EU.

But if Mr Macron struck a presidential note in his provisional victory speech, he has more to do to be assured of ultimate victory.

Mr Fillon was among those declaring immediately after the results became known that he would support the centrist. But across France, especially in the provinces, many Fillon voters said they would transfer their votes to the Front National leader.

Mr Melenchon has so far refused to reveal his second-round intentions, insisting he will be guided by members of his France Unbowed movement. Mr Hamon, the socialist party candidate, has advised followers to vote for Mr Macron but his gesture carries less weight since he polled under seven per cent of the vote, making him little more than a fringe candidate.

One concern for the Macron camp, will be the clear intention of Ms Le Pen to attack him on immigration and terrorism during the final two weeks of campaigning. France is constantly on terrorist alert but bad news on either front would almost inevitably improve her chances.

On present forecasts, Mr Macron will take power. But his work will have barely begun.

Voters return to the polls in June to decide the composition of parliament. Mr Macron currently has no elected support base and his programme will depend on his ability to forge a coalition of like-minded legislators.