BEIRUT// Last week’s groundbreaking preliminary nuclear deal with Iran raised optimism internationally that it could be the first step toward a broader rapprochement between the United States and the Islamic republic.
But across the Middle East’s battlefields, Iran’s proxy forces remain dominant, key actors fighting for gains that run sharply counter to US ambitions — and analysts say this is unlikely to change even if a final nuclear deal is signed.
“Qassem Suleimani was not at the negotiation table in Lausanne,” said Randa Slim, a political analyst with the Washington-based Middle East Institute. She was referring to the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, a man frequently seen rallying Shiite militiamen on the front line in Iraq.
“He is the person in charge of Iran’s policy in many of those proxy areas, be it Yemen, be it Lebanon, Syria or Iraq.”
In the power struggles in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, Iran and the US have different ideas of who should be in charge and have backed forces accordingly. In Syria and Yemen, proxies are actively fighting one another. In Iraq, the US and Iran have found a common enemy in ISIL, but the US seeks to check Iranian ambitions in that country. Calming those battles for influence is a difficult path that is not yet on the table.
“Both the Americans and the Iranians, each with their respective reasons, made sure there was a firewall between the negotiations and the [regional] fight,” said Ms Slim, adding that the sides did not want to complicate the process of reaching a nuclear deal.
Iran’s most renowned proxy, the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah, laid out its position on the nuclear deal and how it would affect the Middle East on Monday evening. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah lauded the deal as a victory for Iran, saying that it would make the country and its allies stronger and allow Tehran to further help the Palestinian cause.
Also, he voiced optimism for the deal ensuring peace in the region.
"The agreement, God willing, rules out the spectre of regional war and world war," Mr Nasrallah said in an interview with Syria's Al Ekhbariya television station.
But Mr Nasrallah also reaffirmed Hizbollah’s commitment to fighting on the side of government forces in Syria, saying that the group knew the war there would be “long and harsh”.
Phillip Smyth, a researcher at the University of Maryland who focuses on Shiite militant groups in the Middle East, said Iran had little interest in ceding the dominance and influence it has won in the region through its proxies.
“We have to look at this in a regional picture,” he said. “Ideologically speaking and also power projection-wise, the Iranians do not want an American presence in the region.”
Just because a preliminary agreement has been cut and the US and Iran may be perceived as having a mutual foe in the extremist group ISIL “it does not necessarily mean that translates into partnership, success on that end, or even more stability”, Mr Smyth said.
In Iraq, the US and Iran have so far been forced to fight on the same side against ISIL and, to a certain degree, cooperate.
The recent battle for Tikrit showed the difficulty for US-backed or Iranian-backed forces to fight and win on their own. In Iraq, the US has pushed for Iraqi government forces to lead the fight against ISIL with the help of coalition air strikes. But Iranian-backed Shiite militias currently vastly outnumber the Iraqi army’s ranks and have shown greater aptitude in spearheading offensives.
But when Shiite militias attempted to lead the assault on the largest ISIL-held city recaptured so far, they made quick gains before getting bogged down by snipers and booby traps. It was only after the US-led coalition launched air strikes on ISIL positions — which Shiite militia leaders vociferously rejected — that the city fell.
Planned offensives to retake Anbar province and Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, could force another joining of efforts. But hostility between the two spheres of influence remains.
In Beirut’s Hizbollah-dominated southern suburbs on Thursday, supporters of the party expressed optimism about the nuclear deal, echoing their leader.
“This is better than going to war, we had to do it,” said a 36-year-old man who identified himself as Hussein. Like many in Hizbollah-controlled areas of Lebanon, he declined to be identified by his surname.
He said the deal could be the first step towards resolving differences between Iran and the US — and potentially the US and Iranian allies such as Hizbollah.
Even Hizbollah’s stance on the US could change, Hussein said, if a deal was struck and the US no longer took a hostile stance towards the group, which it currently considers a terrorist organisation.
“We feel the Iranians got everything they wanted,” said Mohammed, a 36-year-old Hizbollah fighter who works in the same metal shop as Hussein. “It was a victory for Iran. And they did not compromise their allies.”
Nearby, a man working in a car repair shop was less enthusiastic and feared that the negotiations with the West could mean Iranians softening their support for regional allies.
“If Iran starts to take sides with the Americans, that means they will have to leave some of their allies,” said a 52-year-old man who identified himself as Hamada.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Haemoglobin disorders explained
Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.
Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.
The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.
The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.
A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.
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Biog
Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara
He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada
Father of two sons, grandfather of six
Plays golf once a week
Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family
Walks for an hour every morning
Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India
2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business
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States of Passion by Nihad Sirees,
Pushkin Press
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: now
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
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Abu Dhabi Grand Slam Jiu-Jitsu World Tour Calendar 2018/19
July 29: OTA Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan
Sep 22-23: LA Convention Centre in Los Angeles, US
Nov 16-18: Carioca Arena Centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Feb 7-9: Mubadala Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Mar 9-10: Copper Box Arena in London, UK
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 582bhp
Torque: 730Nm
Price: Dh649,000
On sale: now
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Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
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Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.