Turkey's political ties questioned as al Bashir cancels summit visit



ISTANBUL // The decision of Sudan's president Hassan Omar al Bashir not to attend a summit of Islamic states in Istanbul may have helped host country Turkey to overcome a potentially embarrassing situation. But the episode itself, as well as reactions of the Turkish leadership to EU criticism, are likely to rekindle a debate about whether Ankara's ties to the West are loosening.

Mr al Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), in connection with war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Darfur region, was expected to arrive in Istanbul late on Sunday for an economic summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, or OIC. But he told Abdullah Gul, the Turkish president that he would not come in order to address domestic issues, the Sudanese news agency SUNA said on its website.

"The Turkish President accepted the apology of President al Bashir and expressed his hope that President al Bashir will visit Turkey shortly," the agency reported. Mr al Bashir was not in danger of being arrested in Istanbul. Turkey is not part of the ICC and does not regard itself bound by arrest warrants issued by the court. Turkey last week came under international pressure not to host Mr al Bashir. Human rights groups in Turkey said they would stage protests against the visit, while the European Union, which Turkey wants to join, also asked Ankara not to welcome the Sudanese president.

The US government called on Turkey to send messages to Sudan that should be "consistent with ours and with our European friends". With pressure mounting, Mr Gul let the Sudanese government know that a visit by Mr al Bashir would "cause problems", Milliyet, a Turkish newspaper, reported yesterday. Even if Mr Bashir had stuck to his planned visit to Istanbul, Mr Gul would not have met him for a bilateral meeting, the daily said. "The Sudanese see and understand well the difficulties," a high-ranking Turkish diplomat told Agence France-Presse.

But the Sudanese delegation at the Istanbul meeting told Turkish media yesterday that there had been no "advice" coming from Turkey concerning Mr al Bashir's visit and that the president had stayed at home to look for a solution in a dispute between his ruling National Congress Party and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement. Whatever the real reason behind Mr al Bashir's decision not to fly to Istanbul, Turkey's leaders did not hide their anger about what they saw as interference by the EU.

"What do they meddle in this for?" Mr Gul asked in reference to the Europeans. "This is not a bilateral visit," he told Turkish journalists two days before Mr al Bashir dropped his travel plans. Meanwhile, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, defended Mr al Bashir against the accusation of genocide in Darfur, in statements that observers said are likely to raise new questions about Turkey's foreign policy course.

Answering questions on TRT, Turkey's state-run television channel, Mr Erdogan said he himself visited Darfur three years ago. "We could not find evidence of genocide there," he said. "It is not possible that a man who has committed himself to our religion, Islam, commits genocide." Mr Erdogan also renewed his criticism of Israeli military actions in the Gaza Strip. By giving strong support to Mr al Bashir, Mr Erdogan had "poured gasoline" on the ongoing debate about Turkey's place in the world, wrote Semih Idiz, a foreign policy columnist with Milliyet.

After Turkey strengthened ties with Syria and Iran, while at the same time cancelling a military exercise with Israel recently, some western observers had wondered whether Mr Erdogan's government would steer the only Muslim Nato country away from the West. Mr Gul and other top politicians in Ankara denied this, saying Turkey was looking towards the West as well as the East. "In this event, Turkey has been stuck between the two worlds," Idiz wrote about the debate surrounding Mr al Bashir's visit.

Taha Akyol, another Milliyet columnist, said Turkey had to decide which values to apply to its foreign policy. "Yes, al Bashir visited seven countries, like Egypt, Saudi-Arabia and Zimbabwe, after the arrest warrant against him had been issued," Akyol wrote. "But does Turkey want to be a country that has the same 'standards' like those countries, does it want to become the eighth country that al Bashir visits?"

Several Turkish newspapers also criticised Mr Erdogan for saying that it was unthinkable for a Muslim to commit genocide. If the prime minister wanted to express the idea that genocide was incompatible with Islam, he was right, wrote Ahmet Hakan in Hurriyet. But if Mr Erdogan wanted to say that a Muslims simply would never commit a crime like genocide, then he was wrong. "Yes, Muslims do commit genocides and murders," Hakan wrote.

tseibert@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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