ISTANBUL // Fears of a fresh escalation in Turkey's long-running Kurdish conflict were growing yesterday after suspected Kurdish rebels attacked the election convoy of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister.
One policeman was killed and another injured in the attack on a country road snaking through a hillside forest between Kastamonu and Cankiri, near the Black Sea coast, in northern Anatolia.
Mr Erdogan, who has been campaigning for parliamentary elections on June 12, was unhurt. He had left the convoy and travelled by helicopter to his next campaign stop before the attack on the campaign bus, which was carrying several of his aides back to Ankara.
Mehmet Yegin, an analyst at the International Strategic Research Organisation, or Usak, a think-tank based in Ankara, said yesterday he suspected that Kurdish rebels were trying to raise tensions before the elections. Any crackdown by security forces or anti-Kurdish activity by militant Turkish nationalists in response to the attack could damage Mr Erdogan's party in the Kurdish area, where it has more than 50 per cent of the vote, according to opinion polls.
"The attack was launched in order to provoke a counter-reaction," Mr Yegin said. He said this was the reason the assailants picked the Black Sea region, known as a Turkish nationalist stronghold, to stage the assault.
It was not known whether the attackers believed Mr Erdogan was on the bus or whether the attack was not aimed at the prime minister. Security for Mr Erdogan and other leading politicians on the campaign trail was stepped up after the ambush.
The last Turkish prime minister to become the target of an assassination attempt was Turgut Ozal in 1988. Mr Ozal received hand injuries when a shot was fired at him during a speech.
The attack on Wednesday began when a hand grenade was thrown at one of the police cars escorting the prime minister's bus. That was followed by fire from assault rifles. One police vehicle caught fire when its petrol tank was hit. Police returned fire, but the attackers, said to number about five or six, escaped into the forest. A search operation by police and the military failed to produce any arrests.
There was no claim of responsibility by the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a rebel group that has been fighting for Kurdish self-rule since 1984, but Mr Erdogan left no doubt that he suspected Kurdish militants were to blame for the attack.
"These separatist forces think they can get this way what they cannot get at the ballot box," he said shortly after the attack during a campaign speech in the northern Anatolian city of Amasya. "We will not allow anyone to split up this nation's 780,000 square kilometres."
The attack came on the same day seven PKK rebels, killed in recent clashes with the security forces in the Kurdish region in southeastern Anatolia, were buried in ceremonies attended by tens of thousands of people.
Aysel Tugluk, a prominent Kurdish politician, said at a ceremony in the predominantly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir: "The prime minister is responsible for this war. Our fight will go on."
Mr Erdogan's government has overseen reforms that have given additional rights to Turkey's estimated 12 million Kurds. But the PKK and Kurdish politicians say Ankara needs to go much further. A government reform-programme entitled "Democratic Opening" promised more changes, but was shelved after protests by Turkish nationalists.
According to reports in yesterday's press, Turkish police warned authorities in the Black Sea region of possible PKK attacks only two days before the assault on Mr Erdogan's convoy. The region is several hundred kilometres west of the PKK's normal area of operation.
Murat Yetkin, a columnist with the Radikal newspaper, wrote yesterday: "PKK militants are now ready to strike in the Black Sea region and anywhere in Turkey. This is a serious situation." The PKK announced a ceasefire last year, but called off its truce earlier this year.
Mr Erdogan's Islam-rooted Justice and Development Party, or AKP, which is seeking a third term next month, is enjoying an overwhelming lead in the opinion polls, with one published earlier this week putting the party's rating at just under 49 per cent.
The secularist Republican People's Party, or CHP, is at 26 per cent, with the right-wing Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, following at 11 per cent. Kurdish politicians are running as independent candidates, and pollsters say about 20 seats of the 550-seat assembly in Ankara could be filled with Kurdish deputies.
Mr Yegin, of Usak, said the PKK was trying to increase votes for Kurdish candidates by provoking a new wave of repression by police and the military. He urged Turkish authorities to exercise restraint. "The state should remain calm and not overdo things." Asked if he expected further violence before election on June 12, he said other attacks were possible. "They will certainly try, but attacks may be prevented by police."
Turkey's main Kurdish party, the Party for Peace and Democracy, or BDP, which is thought to have strong links to the PKK, did not comment on the attack yesterday.
Mr Yegin said it was important that the BDP distance itself from violence. "It was an attack on a politician in an election campaign, against a democratic activity, and really against democracy itself," he said. "That is why the BDP should strongly condemn it."