DUBLIN // Four months ago, Ireland was at the centre of world affairs, its looming bankruptcy threatening to take the Eurozone with it, perhaps even the global economy.
Financial markets held their breath as EU and IMF officials landed in Dublin to strong-arm the Irish government into implementing a "rescue deal" whereby Ireland's 4.4 million people were forced to pay back €100 million pumped in their imploded property market by reckless bankers at home and abroad.
Yet tomorrow, when Irish voters will use parliamentary elections to evict the government which made that promise, trading screens will not so much as flicker.
Despite their rage at the massive debt imposed on them and their children, equivalent to roughly three times the state's annual tax revenue, most Irish voters will now opt for parties that have already undertaken, with only minor quibbles, to shoulder that burden.
Certain to lead the next government is Enda Kenny, a 59-year-old former school teacher whose Fine Gael ("Tribe of the Gaels", in Irish) party is riding at 38 per cent in the latest polls, up from 27 per cent at the last election.
A centre-right party, pro-business and hostile to public spending, Fine Gael would be, to foreign observers, almost indistinguishable from the pro-business, centre-right and latterly anti-spending Fianna Fail ("Soldiers of Destiny") of outgoing prime minister Brian Cowen.
Such distinctions as there are between the two parties are rooted in a brief civil war which broke out between rival nationalist factions after Britain's withdrawal from southern Ireland in 1922. Since then, every Dublin government has been headed by one or the other faction.
In exile, the Irish have cultivated an image as rebels, fighters, poets and hell-raisers, but many of those who remained behind are in practice deeply conservative, cautious and status-conscious.
Faced with a similar financial crisis, Icelanders took to the streets of Reykjavik, brought down the old order and told foreign investors that the money they had gambled and lost on Icelandic banks was their own problem.
Apart from a couple of orderly and not overly large demonstrations, the Irish have proved much more easily led. The failed government of Mr Cowen was allowed to limp on in office for more than two years after the extent of its disgrace had become apparent. It even managed to survive for three months after the humiliation of the IMF-EU diktat.
Having quietly bided their time, Irish voters will now seek a quantum of solace from the drubbing they are about to inflict on Fianna Fail, despised not only for its incompetent handling of the financial collapse but also for wasting the opportunities of the "Celtic Tiger" boom which preceded it.
Having reigned for 61 of its 79 years in existence, the party founded by Eamon de Valera may now never do so again. The latest opinion polls show its support down to a bare 14 per cent, a third of its vote in the 2007 election. Many senior members and ministers are declining to seek re-election, including Bertie Ahern and Mr Cowen, the two Taoisigh ("leaders") who presided for the last 13 years. The party's new leader, former health minister Michael Martin, could see it wiped out in Dublin.
The third main party, Eamon Gilmore's centre-left Labour Party, at one point led Mr Kenny's Fine Gael but has since dwindled to 20 per cent in pre-election polls, with voters turning away from its commitment to higher social spending.
Nor can Labour claim to offer an alternative to the other parties on the crucial issue of the economy, echoing their vague proposals to somehow obtain more favourable terms from the IMF and EU for the loans already extended to Ireland so its taxpayers could pay off the bankers' losses.
The only major party to oppose this consensus, and to call for a repudiation of the debt, is Sinn Fein, whose Northern Ireland-born leader, Gerry Adams, is seeking to enter southern Irish politics by contesting a Dail (parliament) seat in County Louth.
But despite polling a healthy 12 per cent, Sinn Fein's prospects are constrained by its lingering association with the now-disbanded militant group, the Irish Republican Army. It has also been unable to say how it would pay for the daily running of the state after it burned the IMF and European Central Bank.
The next government is likely therefore to be a repeat of previous middle-of-the-road coalitions between Fine Gael and Labour, unable or unwilling to carry out significant reforms. Or perhaps, if Fine Gael does well enough, Mr Kenny's party will rule alone with support from some of the independent politicians likely to be elected by voters disgusted with mainstream parties.
The Ireland it will inherit suffers from unemployment at 13.4 per cent, rising emigration projected to reach a record 50,000 a year, failed domestic banks which are still sucking in state money while choking off credit to business, and a growing threat of lethal mass default by thousands of residential mortgage holders who are both broke and in negative equity. Many experts predict that the worst is yet to come for Ireland's stagnating economy.
Electoral victory is likely therefore to prove a poisoned chalice. It is a mark of the Irish establishment's strange and enduring faith in business as usual that so many veteran politicians are still struggling to seize it.
Foreign.desk@thenational.ae
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
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Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
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Apple product price list
iPad Pro
11" - $799 (64GB)
12.9" - $999 (64GB)
MacBook Air
$1,199
Mac Mini
$799
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.
On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.
Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later.
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
Company%20profile
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THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now