Bulgaria election: Conservatives and liberals in close parliamentary race

Final results not expected to be announced until later in the week

The head of the GERB party and former prime minister Boyko Borisov after casting his vote in Sofia on April 2. AFP

As votes are counted in Bulgaria's fifth election in two years, early results show the conservatives and liberals in a close race to claim victory, with a pro-Russian party also making gains in a country that is deeply divided over the war in Ukraine.

The poor Balkan nation has been engulfed in a political crisis since 2020, causing turmoil unseen since the fall of Communism, with Russia's invasion of its neighbour causing further tension.

The election results are unlikely to end the crisis in the country of 6.5 million, which is a member of the EU and Nato, but is historically and culturally close to Russia.

Projections based on early results put the conservative GERB of former premier Boyko Borisov at 24-26 per cent, just slightly ahead of a coalition led by liberal Kiril Petkov at 23-24 per cent.

The ultra-nationalist Vazrazhdane party, which defends the Kremlin's war, gained 13 to 14 per cent of the vote, up from the 10 per cent it won in the last ballot in October, the projections show.

Official results are expected during the week.

Krasimir Naydenov, 57, said outside a polling station in Sofia on Sunday that he hoped for "the government to start functioning again".

"No one inspires confidence any more," Mr Naydenov told AFP.

Mr Borisov, who ruled for about a decade, lost power in 2021 after massive anti-corruption protests rocked Bulgaria.

But that set off a record series of elections with political parties struggling to form stable coalitions, leading to a deeply fragmented parliament and a string of interim governments.

Turnout on Sunday was 40 per cent, just slightly up from October, where it sank to a record low of under 40 per cent.

All eyes will be once again on Mr Borisov, 63, and Mr Petkov, 42, although analysts say it is far from certain that the two could find a way for their parties to work together.

Both men support Ukraine but have a bitter history, with Mr Petkov accusing Mr Borisov of corruption.

"There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine is a factor, as well as high inflation, in pushing Petkov and Borisov to find some form of agreement. But would it be enough?" Andrey Raychev, an analyst with Gallup International, told AFP.

Another analyst, Evelina Slavkova of Trend, said: "The closer the results of the first two parties, the harder it will be to form a cabinet."

Unless Mr Borisov withdraws, there is no end in sight to this "worrying spiral of elections", predicted Lukas Macek, associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute for Central and Eastern Europe.

Earlier in the day, Mr Borisov said he wanted to "find a solution to the crisis" of repeating elections.

"With this terrible war in Ukraine, this partition of the world, we must very clearly stay with the democratic world," he said.

Mr Petkov, who was briefly premier in 2022, said he voted for "a normal European life … a normal European government".

On the other hand, many in Bulgaria still revere Russia as the country that ended five centuries of Ottoman rule in 1878.

"Both Petkov and Borisov are too aggressively critical of Russia," said Mariana Valkova, 62, an entrepreneur who worked in the Soviet Union.

"I'd rather there wasn't a government and [President Rumen] Radev remained in charge."

Pro-Russian Mr Radev, who has appointed interim cabinets between the inconclusive elections, has denounced Mr Petkov and his allies as "war mongers".

He also opposes sending arms to Ukraine, as does the Socialist BSP, the successor of Bulgaria's Communist Party, which looks to have won 9 to 10 per cent of the votes cast.