Erdogan set to become president as Turkey goes to polls

After 11 years as prime minister, Erdogan is the overwhelming favourite to make history as the country's first directly elected president.

A rower on the Golden Horn passes campaign posters of Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on August 9, 2014, a day before Turkey’s first direct presidential election. Ozan Kose / AShow more

ANKARA // Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to secure his place in history as Turkey’s first popularly-elected president on Sunday, but his tightening grip on power has polarised the nation, worried allies and raised fears of creeping authoritarianism.

Mr Erdogan’s core supporters, religious conservatives, see his likely rise to the presidency as the crowning achievement of his drive to reshape Turkey. In a decade as prime minister, he has broken the hold of a secular elite that had dominated since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern republic on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire in 1923.

Mr Erdogan could, aides have said, serve two presidential terms and rule to 2023, the 100th anniversary of the secular republic. Such symbolism is not lost on a leader whose passionate speeches are frequently laced with references to Ottoman history.

“On the assumption that Erdogan wins, what we’re going to have is the beginning of a new era,” said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe think tank.

Until now, Turkish presidents have been chosen by parliament but under a new law, the three candidates will face the national electorate as they compete for a five-year term.

Electoral rules ban the publication of opinion polls in the immediate run-up to the vote, but two surveys last month put Mr Erdogan’s support on 55-56 per cent. This is 20 points ahead of the main opposition candidate, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, and enough to secure the simple majority needed to win in the first round.

Selahattin Demirtas, head of the pro-Kurdish left-wing People’s Democratic Party, was running a distant third.

Mr Erdogan has made no secret of his ambition to change the constitution and establish an executive presidency.

“When a man like Erdogan becomes the first popularly-elected president, even if the constitution remains unchanged, it will mean Turkey has switched to a semi-presidential system,” said a senior official from his ruling AKP. “Starting this Sunday, there will be a new system.”

A strong Erdogan victory would mark an extraordinary recovery from one of his most difficult years in office. He has bounced back from anti-government demonstrations last summer, a corruption scandal months later and a power struggle with his former ally, US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen.

Mr Erdogan accuses Mr Gulen, whose network of followers wield influence in the police and judiciary, of unleashing the graft scandal in a plot to remove him and has responded by purging institutions of those thought to be loyal to the cleric.

It is a battle he has vowed to pursue as president.

Timothy Ash, head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank in London, compares his tactical skills with those of past US and British leaders.

“Never bet against Erdogan, as he is simply a brilliant political operator – a Turkish version of Bill Clinton or Tony Blair in terms of their ability to feel and shape the mood of a majority of the nation,” Mr Ash said in a recent note.

Mr Erdogan’s reactions when threatened can appear impulsive and autocratic. From a heavy-handed police crackdown on the protests last summer, to bans on YouTube and Twitter or comments in recent weeks likening Israel’s offensive in Gaza to the actions of Hitler, Mr Erdogan has drawn growing criticism in western capitals and looked isolated internationally.

“An almighty presidency implies polarising discourse, implies keeping the rule of law back ... All of this is not EU-compatible,” Mr Pierini said. “Despite all this, you have a Turkey which is heavily reliant on Nato for its security. It’s going to be a very difficult relationship.”

In the weeks following his likely victory, Mr Erdogan will chair AKP meetings for the last time and oversee selection of a new party leader, likely to be his future prime minister.

Under the constitution, Mr Erdogan would have to break with the party once he is inaugurated on August 28. It is therefore vital for him that a staunch loyalist heads the party he founded.

Should his influence over the party wane, Mr Erdogan could struggle to force through the constitutional changes he wants to create an executive presidency, a reform which requires either a two-thirds majority in parliament or a popular vote.

“Removing Erdogan from the post of prime minister and putting him in the position of president with a constitution he is unhappy with seems to be a recipe for instability,” said Sinan Ulgen, head of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies.

Senior AKP officials say foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who has strong support within the party bureaucracy and has been mr Erdogan’s right-hand man internationally, is the top choice to succeed him, although former transport minister Binali Yildirim is also trying to position himself for the job.

* Reuters