Erdogan heads to Washington with big grievances

Turkey saw election of Donald Trump as the start of a beautiful friendship, but is now outraged at the US president's decision to arm Kurdish 'terrorists' fighting against ISIL.

Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan talks to Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko on May 15, 2017 in Beijing, where the Turkish leader is attending the Belt and Road Forum before travelling to tShow more

BEIRUT // When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States, all the indications were that Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s first meeting with the former reality TV star and real estate mogul would be a friendly one.

But when the two men finally come face to face in Washington on Tuesday, the tone is set to be adversarial.

During the election campaign, Mr Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Lt Gen Michael Flynn, was a man paid to push the Turkish government’s agenda in Washington. Mr Trump was painting the US-led fight against ISIL – which in Syria relied heavily on Kurdish forces that Turkey labels terrorists – as floundering, and promising a change of strategy. For Turkey, which saw its relationship with the US sink at times to outright hostility while Barack Obama was in the White House, this was welcomed with open arms.

In the nearly four months since Mr Trump took office, however, Turkey has seen his administration pursue largely the same foreign policies as the Obama administration.

Turkey’s closest friend in the Trump administration, Gen Flynn was fired from his national security adviser post within weeks for misleading vice president Mike Pence over his contacts with Russia’s ambassador to the US. Fethullah Gulen, the self-exiled cleric who Ankara blames for a coup attempt against Mr Erdogan in July last year, is still living as a free man in the US state of Pennsylvania, despite continued calls by Turkey for his arrest and extradition. And US support for the Kurdish YPG militia in northern Syria – which Ankara considers an arm of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – has only deepened, with hundreds more American troops deploying to YPG-held areas of the country.

Last week, Mr Trump did something even more unforgivable in Turkey’s eyes by authorising a plan to provide weapons to the YPG. The move was a clear signal to Ankara that Washington had rejected its plan to have Turkish forces and allied Arab rebel proxies lead the fight to retake Raqqa, ISIL’s self-described capital. And by supplying heavy weapons to the YPG, which will remain in their hands after the Raqqa operation is over, Washington has raised the likelihood of a Kurdish state in northern Syria after the war.

This latest development is likely to dominate talks between Mr Erdogan and Mr Trump and represents a schism that is not easily repaired.

Turkey, predictably, has been livid over the US decision. Ankara has said the YPG’s weapons would end up being used by the PKK, which has been fighting a deadly insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, and accused the US of siding with a terrorist group.

The US has attempted to reassure its Nato ally that the weapons will not reach the PKK, which both nations consider a terrorist group, while promising to find a role for Turkey in the fight for Raqqa.

Keeping Turkey calm will be essential if the US wants the Raqqa operation to proceed without obstacles. Turkish forces have repeatedly fought the YPG after entering Syrian territory last August alongside Syrian rebel units, ostensibly to drive ISIL away from its border but also to clear areas of Kurdish fighters. While the Turkish military operation has officially ended, Mr Erdogan has promised to continue confronting the YPG in Syria and last month attacked the Kurdish militia’s positions with air strikes.

In the past, Turkey has also threatened to bar American forces from using its Incirlik airbase, a major launching point for the US-led coalition’s strikes against ISIL in Syria.

Still, some in the Turkish government remain optimistic about how Mr Trump will deal with Ankara.

In a report published by Turkey's pro-government Daily Sabah newspaper last week, Turkish officials blamed the US decision to arm the YPG on Obama administration holdovers who were afraid that, in a face-to-face meeting, Mr Erdogan could persuade Mr Trump to adopt a position more friendly to Ankara.

Mr Trump, after all, has had a history of going into meetings with adversaries only to leave as friends. Last month, he hosted Chinese president Xi Jinping, whose country is one of North Korea’s few friends and a nation Mr Trump had promised to label a currency manipulator. Weeks later, Mr Trump is still beaming about the meeting and how great Mr Xi is.

Mr Erdogan has voiced confidence about the outcome of his meeting with Mr Trump, describing it as a “milestone” in Turkish-American relations before he departed for Washington on Monday.

But reconciling differences could prove impossible. The YPG remains the only force that is in position to capture Raqqa in the near future, and Turkey will never be convinced that the group is not a threat. The militia’s ties to the PKK are strong and a strengthened YPG will embolden Kurdish separatists in Turkey even if they do not receive US weapons from their friends across the border.