Egypt’s charter referendum will be a verdict on Islamism

Draft constitution that replaces Islamist-leaning clauses with guarantees of equal rights for all will also indicate progress in military's road map to democracy.

A man holds signs in support of Egypt's draft constitution during a demonstration at Tahrir Square in Cairo on Friday. Mohamed Abd El Ghany / Reuters

CAIRO // Egypt’s military-backed government faces its most serious test to date when a new constitution drafted by a panel it appointed is put to a nationwide referendum next month.

The January 14-15 referendum will be tantamount to a vote of confidence on the road map announced by the military chief, Gen Abdel Fattah El Sisi, on July 3, the day the Islamist president Mohammed Morsi was removed from office after just one year in power. Beyond that, the vote will provide an accurate reading of how much influence the Muslim Brotherhood, which supports Mr Morsi, still has on the street to stage an effective boycott of the process.

Last but not least, the January vote will be a dress rehearsal for what is increasingly looking like a presidential run by Gen El Sisi.

A huge turnout and the adoption of the constitution by a comfortable majority would be a strong indication of support for Gen El Sisi, who has yet to say whether he will run but who has also gone on the record as not ruling it out.

The next steps in the road map are parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in the spring and early summer of 2014.

The 62-page, 247-article dicument drafted by mostly liberals is in effect a massive amendment of a constitution drafted by Mr Morsi’s Islamist allies a year ago, and provides Egyptians with more freedoms that any previous charter. What has been added to and deleted from that document should bring down the final curtain on the Brotherhood’s rule.

No longer are there clauses and language that critics maintained would have led to the creation of an Islamist state in Egypt. In their place are clauses that guarantee democratic rule, freedoms, gender equality and protection for minorities.

The chairman of the 50-member panel that drafted the constitution, veteran diplomat Amr Moussa, said he wishes to see the document adopted by more than 70 per cent of the vote and a huge turnout of voters. A longtime foreign minister and Arab league chief, Mr Moussa has been campaigning for a “yes” vote since he handed over the document to the interim president, Adly Mansour, on December 3. Other members of the panel are doing the same, speaking to members of labour and professional unions and making frequent TV appearances.

But it will take more than that, perhaps much more, to surpass the 63 per cent of votes the Morsi-era constitution won last year on a turnout of just 33 per cent.

The large anti-Morsi alliance forged in the summer is showing serious cracks, and the government is becoming less and less popular for its failure to deliver tangible economic results and, in some quarters, for not dealing firmly enough with protests by Islamists demanding Mr Morsi’s reinstatement.

In addition, a hugely unpopular law regulating street protests has been widely viewed as too draconian. The law may have been intended to discourage pro-Morsi protests, but it has failed to do so. Instead, it has created dissent among the liberal and secular “revolutionary” youth groups that campaigned against Mr Morsi. They claim the law harkens back to the harsh police tactics of Hosni Mubarak’s 29-year rule.

Deepening the rift between the government and these groups is the detention of three leading figures of the 2011 anti-Mubarak uprising: Alaa Abdel-Fattah, Ahmed Maher and Ahmed Douma. They face charges of breaking the law on street protests and assaulting policemen.

The youth groups played a key role in removing Mr Morsi, mobilising millions who took to the streets in late June and early July to demand that he step down. They remain convinced that Mr Morsi had to go, and while they may not vote against the new constitution, they could campaign for a boycott of the referendum to send a message to the authorities.

It is this realisation that is forcing the government to seek out the centres of support once so efficiently used by the Mubarak regime – large rural families, clans, tribes and interest groups. While that tactic would go a long way to deliver the comfortable “yes” majority the government is hoping for, it will likely confirm the fears of many in the ranks of the so-called revolutionaries that Mubarak-era ways and figures are back on the scene in post-Morsi Egypt.

But that argument is countered by liberal leftist and leftist politicians who assert that Egypt will not move forward without the reconciliation of all of its main groups, including Mubarak-era figures, and that for the country to emerge from three years of turmoil it must emerge from a state of revolution.