BAGHDAD // The battle to retake Mosul from ISIL could unleash a massive humanitarian crisis, potentially pushing up to a million people to flee their homes as winter sets in.
Mosul, the country’s second city, was seized by ISIL in 2014, and is now the last major population centre in Iraq still held by the extremists.
It is believed that more than a million people still live there. The only other operation to retake a city that had a significant number of inhabitants was in Fallujah earlier this year, but it led to widespread displacement and suffering for those who fled.
Based on what the military said, significant population movements will likely take place “within five to six days”, Lise Grande, the UN’s humanitarian coordinator in Iraq.
“We are rushing to help the Iraqis ensure that the bare minimum requirements for a worst-case humanitarian scenario are in place. We’re worried that there is still so much to do and that these are not yet there,” she said.
She said that in a worst-case scenario, this could be the single largest humanitarian operation in the world in 2016.
The UN said after Baghdad announced the launch of the operation on Monday that an estimated 1.5 million people still live in the Mosul area and that the fighting could displace up to one million.
If even a sixth of that number of people flee at the same time, it would overwhelm any capacity to help them.
“There’s an informal rule of thumb that any population movement over 150,000 people at once, no institution in the world can deal with it,” Ms Grande said.
Those who flee Mosul will likely bring little or nothing with them, meaning basic necessities such as food, water, shelter and clothing will have to be provided.
“Many of them are expected to leave Mosul with only the clothes on their backs,” said Becky Bakr Abdulla of the Norwegian Refugee Council.
Despite the massive scale of the humanitarian operation needed to assist people fleeing Mosul, funding is a major problem. Of US$367 million (Dh1.35bn) requested, significantly less than half has been received so far.
The International Organisation for Migration has announced that it will build emergency sites to provide shelter and basic services for 200,000 people, but said last week that it still needed additional funding.
According to the UN’s Ms Grande, 200,000 people being displaced “is a working scenario” for what might happen in the first two weeks. The number could still rise significantly as the operation goes on.
Iraqi forces will have to fight their way through ISIL-held territory to reach the city, then surround it and launch an assault to retake it.
Depending on how long the operation takes, major displacement from the city could come as winter sets in, leaving people with limited shelter in the freezing desert nights.
Mosul civilians will be in grave danger during the fighting, caught in the middle of shelling, air strikes and firefights, and may also be held as human shields by ISIL.
“In the densely populated districts of the city ... there could be tens of thousands, maybe even hundreds of thousands of civilians at extreme risk, depending upon what Daesh does,” said Ms Grande.
“If Daesh rings districts with [bombs], if they put snipers at key points, we could see a situation where civilians become human shields,” she said.
Of three Iraqi cities that have been recaptured from ISIL, only Fallujah had a substantial civilian population, and the way that operation unfolded does not bode well for Mosul.
Tens of thousands of people fled the city and surrounding areas in an exodus that appeared to catch the aid community flat-footed, leaving displaced Iraqis in squalid, overcrowded camps.
After people escape Mosul, “hopefully, the humanitarian society will then be able to provide these people with the help they need, so that they don’t step from one hell into another hell”, Ms Abdulla from the Norwegian Refugee Council said.
* Agence France-Presse
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Types of policy
Term life insurance: this is the cheapest and most-popular form of life cover. You pay a regular monthly premium for a pre-agreed period, typically anything between five and 25 years, or possibly longer. If you die within that time, the policy will pay a cash lump sum, which is typically tax-free even outside the UAE. If you die after the policy ends, you do not get anything in return. There is no cash-in value at any time. Once you stop paying premiums, cover stops.
Whole-of-life insurance: as its name suggests, this type of life cover is designed to run for the rest of your life. You pay regular monthly premiums and in return, get a guaranteed cash lump sum whenever you die. As a result, premiums are typically much higher than one term life insurance, although they do not usually increase with age. In some cases, you have to keep up premiums for as long as you live, although there may be a cut-off period, say, at age 80 but it can go as high as 95. There are penalties if you don’t last the course and you may get a lot less than you paid in.
Critical illness cover: this pays a cash lump sum if you suffer from a serious illness such as cancer, heart disease or stroke. Some policies cover as many as 50 different illnesses, although cancer triggers by far the most claims. The payout is designed to cover major financial responsibilities such as a mortgage or children’s education fees if you fall ill and are unable to work. It is cost effective to combine it with life insurance, with the policy paying out once if you either die or suffer a serious illness.
Income protection: this pays a replacement income if you fall ill and are unable to continue working. On the best policies, this will continue either until you recover, or reach retirement age. Unlike critical illness cover, policies will typically pay out for stress and musculoskeletal problems such as back trouble.
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Eyasses squad
Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)
Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)
Isabel Affley – goalkeeper / goal defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)
Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Caitlin Gowdy – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Noorulain Hussain – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai College)
Zahra Hussain-Gillani – goal defence / goalkeeper (British School Al Khubairat)
Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
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The Perfect Couple
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Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
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The%20specs
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THE%20FLASH
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
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HAEMOGLOBIN DISORDERS EXPLAINED
Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.
Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.
The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.
The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.
A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.