Zardari on the brink of presidency

Asif Ali Zardari could complete his transformation by becoming the most powerful elected president Pakistan has seen.

Asif Ali Zardari, the presidential candidate, offers prayers for his late wife, Benazir Bhutto, before a party meeting in Naudero.

ISLAMABAD // Asif Ali Zardari could tomorrow become the most powerful elected president Pakistan has had, completing his unlikely transformation from a playboy vilified for alleged corruption to a world statesman. If he wins the election he will have the authority to appoint and dismiss the army chief, he will have his finger on the nuclear button and he will head the National Security Council. He will also possess the power to dissolve parliament and sack provincial governments. Few would deny Mr Zardari's democratic credentials, as the candidate for the political group that has the largest number of seats in parliament, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), who looks set to be supported by a wide range of other parties, ensuring his overwhelming election. But Mr Zardari is dogged not only by his controversial past - his behaviour when Benazir Bhutto, his late wife, was twice prime minister in the late 1980s and 1990s - but also the muscular politics that marked the eight months that he has led the party.

Even loyalists admit to be stunned by the way that Mr Zardari has catapulted himself, from shunned spouse to president. He was not even part of the political process in Pakistan when Bhutto was assassinated in December last year. She had not granted him a ticket to fight a seat in the elections, and he was living in exile in New York. But, flying back for her funeral, he immediately managed to establish an iron grip over the party, even though he was by no means her assumed successor. Then, Mr Zardari knitted together a coalition, keeping traditional PPP rival Nawaz Sharif on board long enough to dispatch then President Pervez Musharraf. He has kept the coalition government afloat after Mr Sharif stormed out. In short, he has proven himself to be a skilful politician, outmanoeuvring Mr Sharif and opening up the presidential slot for himself. But, what difference will a Zardari presidency make? What will be its impact on the domestic and international fronts?

For Pakistan, international relations now boil down to one thing: the "war on terror". Here Mr Zardari and his PPP will continue with Mr Musharraf's close alliance with Washington. Unlike Mr Sharif, the nationalist Awami National Party, or the Islamist parties, the PPP has taken ownership of the antiterror fight, despite the huge unpopularity of this position within Pakistan. "The war we our fighting is our war. This battle is for Pakistan's soul. My wife's inflexible stance on defeating terrorists cost her life. My party and I are struggling to save our nation," Mr Zardari wrote in an opinion piece in yesterday's Washington Post.

Under a colonial legacy, the head of state, that is the president of Pakistan, not the prime minister, rules over the tribal belt, the sliver of land that runs along the Afghan border, which is haven for extremists who menace both Pakistan and Afghanistan. So, for the US and the coalition forces in Afghanistan, who is president of Pakistan matters. There is every sign that the Americans are comfortable with Mr Zardari in the top position - the recent revelation of his close contacts with leading Bush administration official Zalmay Khalilzad confirmed his status Mr Zardari's alignment with Washington will help safeguard his position and provide Pakistan with financial benefits. "This is a very unpopular war but Zardari is signed up," said Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a political scientist at the Lahore University of Management Sciences. "This will keep the Pakistan army at a distance and improve Pakistan's economic situation." In democratic politics, Mr Zardari will remain highly controversial. As party boss, he has already made the position of prime minister largely irrelevant. As president, he will totally dominate, despite the fact that it is supposed to be a ceremonial position. Pakistan, in theory, has a parliamentary system of government, run by the prime minister. But Mr Musharraf, like other military usurpers before him, had grabbed enormous powers for the presidency, under a change in the constitution known as the 17th amendment. Mr Zardari has suggested that he will "amend the constitution to bring back into balance the powers of the presidency". However, having thrice vowed to restore the judges fired by Mr Musharraf, and failing each time to fulfil the pledge, there is widespread scepticism that Mr Zardari will now strip the presidency back to its original figurehead role. "There's a huge credibility gap," said Shaheen Sehbai, editor of The News, a Pakistani daily. "He's pretty insecure but maybe once he's president, we'll see a change in Mr Zardari." Some of that insecurity may have surfaced this week when it emerged that the corruption courts had suddenly revived long-dormant cases against Mr Sharif. Many saw the hand of Mr Zardari behind it - despite claims from the government that it was surprised by the move. He appeared to be warning Mr Sharif not to try to destabilise the government in Islamabad, from his regional power base in the Punjab. That was a sign that, if Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif decide to go to war, politics will get very ugly, and Pakistan's stability will come under a new threat. According to some, that would invite the army back in, an institution that has staged multiple coups in Pakistan's short history. With Pakistan in a perilous state, economically and from violent extremism, the stakes for Mr Zardari could not be higher. [e-mail]