Japan's former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba is seen as seen as a strong orator with significant political experience. AFP

Who could succeed Shinzo Abe as Japan's prime minister?



Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's decision to resign over health problems has turned attention to who might succeed the country's longest-ruling premier, with no consensus yet clear on a candidate.

Here are some of the potential contenders:

Taro Aso, gaffe-prone finance minister

Taro Aso is a Liberal Democratic Party old-timer and close Abe ally who serves as finance minister and deputy prime minister

Mr Aso, 79, was prime minister from 2008-09 and has held his current posts since 2012.

He stepped down as premier after the LDP was booted from office in a historic defeat in 2009, and has long been rumoured to nurse hopes of another chance at the top office.

His long political career has been punctuated by repeated gaffes, including comments that the elderly should "hurry up and die" instead of costing the government money, and that Tokyo could learn from Nazi Germany when it comes to constitutional reform.

But he has weathered the multiple furores over his comments, and leads a major faction in the LDP.

He backed a massive stimulus programme in the face of the 2008 global financial crisis, but later shifted to stressing the importance of reducing the country's snowballing debt.

Shigeru Ishiba, popular former defence minister

Former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba is considered a military geek but is also a self-confessed fan of 1970s pop music.

The 63-year-old former banker is the scion of a political family and seen as a strong orator with significant experience – he entered parliament at just 29.

Like Mr Abe, Mr Ishiba is a defence hawk who wants to strengthen the role of the country's Self-Defence Forces in the pacifist constitution, and he has even mused about whether Japan should reconsider its policy forbidding nuclear weapons on its soil.

He has served in several cabinet posts and is a popular choice to succeed Mr Abe among the public.

Mr Ishiba is less favoured by his fellow ruling party lawmakers, partly because he once left the LDP.

He was the sole challenger to Mr Abe in the party's 2018 leadership contest and was heavily defeated.

Yoshihide Suga, power player and adviser

Yoshihide Suga, 71, rose to national prominence as a trusted Abe adviser and was a key proponent of his bid for the premiership after a disastrous first term.

After Mr Abe returned to power in 2012, he appointed Mr Suga chief cabinet secretary, a powerful position that co-ordinates the efforts of government ministries and the ruling party.

He is also often the face of the government, delivering regular press briefings and famously revealed the name of the new imperial era declared with the ascension of Emperor Naruhito in 2019 – the Reiwa era.

He is a rare self-made lawmaker in a ruling party filled with hereditary politicians and former technocrats, and is the eldest son of a strawberry farmer.

Mr Suga moved to Tokyo after high school and worked odd jobs to put himself through night college.

He was first elected in 1987, as a municipal assembly member in Yokohama, and won a lower house seat in 1996.

Fumio Kishida, favoured successor

Former foreign minister Fumio Kishida currently serves as the ruling party's policy chief and is often described as Mr Abe's preferred successor, but his soft-spoken, low-key presence and alleged lack of charisma are seen as possible obstacles.

Elected from Hiroshima, Mr Kishida worked to invite then-US president Barack Obama for a historic visit to the city that was devastated by the world's first war-time atomic bomb explosion.

He has been credited with helping cement a deal between Japan and South Korea in 2015 that was meant to end the long-running dispute between the countries over the use of sex slaves during Japan's occupation.

Taro Kono, colourful Twitter user

Defence Minister Taro Kono was once considered an ambitious and independent-minded political reformer, but the 57-year-old has toned down his rhetoric in recent years as a key member of Mr Abe's cabinet.

After a stint as a government reform minister, the Georgetown-educated politician served as foreign minister between 2017-2019 before becoming defence minister.

He travelled extensively as Japan's top diplomat, but also oversaw the deterioration of ties with South Korea over unresolved wartime disputes.

In recent years, he has largely avoided discussing his passionate opposition to nuclear power, given the government's official support, and despite his independent image he is seen as close to both Mr Aso and Mr Suga.

Often contrasted with his father, political dove Yohei Kono, he has also set himself apart with his online presence, maintaining personal Twitter accounts in Japanese and English.

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Name: ARDH Collective
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi

Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

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Simran

Director Hansal Mehta

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey

Three stars

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

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Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage

Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid 

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Rating: 4/5

A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
  • 2018: Formal work begins
  • November 2021: First 17 volumes launched 
  • November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
  • October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
  • November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Business Insights
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What should do investors do now?

What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor? 

Should I be euphoric?

No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.

So what happened?

It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.

"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."

Should I buy? Should I sell?

Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.

"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.

All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.

Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.

Will the rally last?

No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.

"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."

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Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
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The Birkin bag is made by Hermès. 
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
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City's slump

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L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1

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More from Armen Sarkissian

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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MATCH INFO

What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany

Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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