Mixed emotions complicate Punjab governor's assassination



ISLAMABAD // Analysts said yesterday that the assassination of Salman Taseer shows the extent of extremism in a deeply divided society where tolerance is fast vanishing and leaders face mounting risks.

The 66-year-old governor of Punjab, who was a close friend of the president, Asif Ali Zardari, was buried in Lahore yesterday in a funeral attended by thousands of supporters and workers of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

The liberal politician was killed in Islamabad on Tuesday by one of his security guards because of his campaign to repeal the country’s blasphemy law.

A top aide to Mr Zardari said the bodyguard, Mumtaz Qadri, 26, had been labelled a security risk months before by the police department he worked for.

Faisal Raza Abdi said the Punjab province police’s assessment of Qadri states he should not be deployed to protect high-profile figures because of his “extremist views”.

Lawyers showered Qadri with rose petals when he arrived at court yesterday and an influential Muslim scholars group praised the assassination of the outspoken opponent of laws that order death for those who insult Islam.

Qadri made his first appearance in an Islamabad court, where a judge remanded him in custody a day after he allegedly sprayed automatic gunfire at Taseer. A rowdy crowd slapped him on the back and kissed his cheek as he was escorted inside.

The lawyers who tossed handfuls of rose petals over him were not involved in the case. As he left the court, about 200 sympathisers chanted “death is acceptable for [the Prophet] Mohammed’s slave”. The suspect stood at the back door of an armoured police van with a flower necklace given to him by an admirer and repeatedly yelled “God is great”.

The funeral was attended by the prime minister, Yusuf Raza Gilani, and other top government officials. Mr Zardari did not attend but vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice.

The assassination comes as the ruling PPP has lost its majority in the national assembly and the prime minister is scrambling to form a coalition.

The killing has greatly exacerbated the sense of political and religious crisis in the country. At stake are not only campaigns against religious extremism – a manifestation of which was opposition to the blasphemy law – but the broad economic and financial reforms that the United States has been pushing in the country.

The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said in a statement that “his death is a great loss” and that she “admired his work to promote tolerance”.

Taseer’s vociferous and blunt opposition to the blasphemy law had roiled the country’s religious forces. His western, liberal life style was a sharp contrast to the conservative, increasingly religious complexion of the Pakistani society.

His assassination is likely to embolden the extremists and further isolate and alienate the liberal progressive forces, according to his friends and analysts.

“At a time when the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party is beset by political problems and unable to take a clear stance on public issues, Salman Taseer had emerged as a rallying figure regarding human rights issues,” said Raza Rumi, the contributing editor of The Friday Times, a Lahore-based weekly, and a friend of the Taseer family.

“He had no power; he could not introduce any law but his symbolism and leadership was a great support to those who want to see a thriving liberal, secular democratic Pakistan. After his death, the secular democratic elements have nobody to look up to,” Mr Rumi lamented.

“The brutal killing is a message for the scattered, small minority of secular democrats that their public position is no longer acceptable. They will simply be silenced.”

Other analysts echoed the sentiment.

“Taseer’s assassination demonstrates a troubling consensus in Pakistan that it’s legitimate to murder those who commit blasphemy or somehow abet it,” said Arif Rafiq, a political analyst based in Washington that provides strategic guidance on Middle East and South Asian political and security issues.

“Many Pakistani commentators, while condemning the governor’s murder, make a false equivalence between Taseer’s so-called liberal extremism and the murderous extremism of the country’s religious radicals. If Pakistanis cannot come to terms with the injustice of Taseer’s murder, there’s certainly the potential they will be eventually consumed by this disease of extremism pervading their land.”

Mr Rafiq added: “The loss of Taseer is a big blow to Zardari’s PPP, which lacks a leader in the pivotal province of Punjab. In 2011,

Pakistan could see new elections ushering in a coalition of the centre-right and Islamists into power in Islamabad. These parties certainly won’t support religious reform in the country.”

He said the fact that Taseer was murdered by his own bodyguard will cause politicians to be “even more deferential to the radicals, fearing for their own lives”.

That extremists get easily recruited into the state security apparatus has rattled nerves in the country. “The extremists have not only penetrated the security forces but also achieved their target. Who knows how widespread they are now in the law enforcing agencies, which are meant to protect ordinary citizens and officials,” said Mr Rumi.

Some PPP officials said the assassination could serve as a catalyst to unite the country against extremism.

“Governor Taseer’s assassination is likely to create backlash, energising the anti-extremist base of the PPP,” said a party official and close aide to Mr Zardari.

But initial signs yesterday indicated that the party was already inching away from further provoking religious sensitivities as some officials dismissed the possibility that the assassination was a random, isolated incident, inspired by religious overzealousness and couched the murder as a political conspiracy.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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