A quarter of a century after taking up arms to fight for a separate homeland, Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers are now locked in a deadly struggle to hold on to a small patch of jungle, a fraction of the territory they controlled just weeks ago. As government forces close in, some are predicting an end to the bloody conflict, which has claimed 70,000 lives.
That is unlikely.
It is true that the Sri Lankan military has recently made unprecedented gains, but the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) have proven to be a canny and resilient enemy. Even if the Tigers suffer a conventional military defeat, they are likely to resort increasingly to guerrilla tactics and terrorism rather than surrender.
More importantly, a military victory would do nothing to address the legitimate grievances of Sri Lanka's Tamil minority, which gave rise to the LTTE in the first place.
"The Sri Lankan government may finally win the war but the ethnic conflict will not be resolved on the battlefield," said Charu Lata Hogg, a researcher with Human Rights Watch.
What is needed is: "A negotiated political settlement."
But the Sri Lankan government has been pursuing a military solution. It officially pulled out of a ceasefire agreement a year ago and launched a major offensive last autumn. On Wednesday night, it banned the LTTE, effectively ruling out further peace negotiations. The move came after a string of military successes, including the Jan 2 capture of the LTTE administrative capital, Kilinochchi.
In a speech following that victory, Sri Lanka's president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, declared they were witnessing nothing less than "the final act" of the war.
Kilinochchi was the physical embodiment of the LTTE's aspiration for self-governance, and its capture therefore carried great propaganda value.
"There were some who tried to present Kilinochchi as the capital of a separate state," Mr Rajapaksa said. "We have seen in the recent past how this was believed not only by the international media but also by those engaged in diplomacy."
From Kilinochchi, the LTTE ran its de facto state-within-a-state. By carving out a swath of territory that stretched across the island, the Tigers had cut off land access between the government-controlled south and the Jaffna Peninsula to the north, which was occupied by government troops.
The LTTE set up its own police force, court system and a humanitarian arm, which ran programmes funded largely by donations from overseas Tamils. The trappings of statehood gave the Tamil Tigers a veneer of legitimacy, which they have now lost.
"This is indeed a significant victory - both symbolic and territorial - for the Sri Lankan army, and probably marks the beginning of the end of LTTE's hold of the north," Ms Hogg said.
But a loss of territory would not necessarily mean the end of the LTTE. It could focus more on terror tactics, such as suicide bombings, a technique it pioneered in the 1980s and has used to devastating effect.
In 1991, Rajiv Ghandi, India's former prime minister, was killed by a suicide bombing that Indian and Sri Lankan officials blamed on the Tamil Tigers.
Indian authorities want to extradite and try Velupillai Prabhakaran, the head of the LTTE, for his alleged role in the assassination - yet another reason the elusive leader is unlikely to order his fighters to surrender.
The LTTE has also made victims of those it claims to represent in order to maintain its power.
"It has forcibly recruited children, men and women, suppressed independent media and opinion, killed and tortured political opponents within the Tamil community and been an authoritarian entity," Ms Hogg said.
All of those charges can equally be laid against the Sri Lankan government, and many young Tamils joined the LTTE out of anger.
The roots of the conflict stretch back to the post-independence period when the government, which was dominated by Sinhalese Buddhists, began passing anti-Tamil legislation. A 1956 Act made Sinhala the official language, while the 1972 constitution gave Buddhism the "foremost place" in the state.
Discrimination against Tamils, who are mostly Hindu with a minority of Muslims and a smaller number of Christians, prevented many from attending university or gaining government jobs. Hundreds were killed in anti-Tamil riots in the decades following independence from Britain.
When Tamil militants killed 13 soldiers in 1983, Sinhalese nationalists unleashed organised mobs. Security forces failed to stop the violence and thousands of Tamils were killed, while tens of thousands lost their homes and businesses.
"It is generally recognised that the Tamil minority population in Sri Lanka has genuine political and economic grievances," Ms Hogg said. "A just political solution that ensures the rights of minority communities, including Muslims, would offer a way out of the current cycle of escalating violence."
Such solutions have been proposed but not put into action.
During the Norwegian-led peace negotiations, the LTTE dropped its demand for a separate homeland to bargain for political autonomy within the Sri Lankan state. But negotiations quickly broke down, with the LTTE claiming it was being marginalised, and both sides violated the ceasefire.
A 1987 amendment to the constitution required the central government to devolve power, which would give more representation to provinces with large Tamil populations. But successive governments have failed to pursue the devolution policy and the current one has focused instead on destroying the LTTE through military means.
"We have great confidence that the determined path we have traversed so far will result in a sustainable peace to our country and people," Mr Rajapaksa said.
But if that path does not include measures to empower the Tamil community it is likely to lead only to continued bloodshed.
jferrie@thenational.ae
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
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Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
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Race card
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1.600m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 2,000m
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 1,200m
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
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Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
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Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
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Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
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Temple numbers
Expected completion: 2022
Height: 24 meters
Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people
Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people
First floor main Prayer Hall: 465 square metres to hold 1,500 people at a time
First floor terrace areas: 2,30 square metres
Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres
Structure includes two basements, ground and first floor
Soldier F
“I was in complete disgust at the fact that only one person was to be charged for Bloody Sunday.
“Somebody later said to me, 'you just watch - they'll drop the charge against him'. And sure enough, the charges against Soldier F would go on to be dropped.
“It's pretty hard to think that 50 years on, the State is still covering up for what happened on Bloody Sunday.”
Jimmy Duddy, nephew of John Johnson
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker
Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe
Four stars
Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
The%20Specs
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Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: From Dh280,000