Kim Jong Il expected to make rare visit to China

Beijing hopes to nudge Pyongyang back to the nuclear negotiation table but US economic sanctions may pose obstacle.

North Korean stamps featuring Kim Jong Il with the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, and the former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin are sold during the North Korean leader's last visit to China in October 2006Show more

BEIJING // Speculation has been escalating that the reclusive North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, is likely to make a rare trip to China very soon amid a consensus that both sides have enough "issues of mutual concerns" that necessitate such a visit. Pyongyang is seeking economic aid from China and its support for Mr Kim's designation of his son as the country's next leader. For its part, Beijing wants to bolster its ambitions to be a major international mediator by nudging the North back to the nuclear negotiation table, analysts said.

Reports of Mr Kim's imminent visit were first reported in the Japanese media at the end of last year but gained international attention on January 5 when a senior US state department official told reporters that Washington would welcome any trip to China by Mr Kim to help re-start the stalled six-party talks on ending the North's nuclear programme. "We have always welcomed interaction with North Korea by our partners in the six-party process, and we welcome that interaction if Kim Jong Il travels to Beijing," the state department official said, requesting anonymity.

On January 6, the South Korean TV station KBS said "a 30-man advance team from North Korea arrived in China to prepare for Kim Jong Il's visit". The next day, Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper said that the Chinese city of Dandong, which is the main train hub linking North Korea and China, was in a state of emergency alert, suggesting a trip was imminent. The Chinese foreign ministry has denied all the reports.

Mr Kim's visit to China would also have been expected because the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, and the president, Hu Jintao, signaled to the reclusive North Korean leader twice in recent months that he should visit China. North Korea and China have enough mutually important issues to make such high-level talks a necessity, analysts said. Cai Jian, an expert on North Korea at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that the North Korean nuclear issue, economic aid, and the heir issue will be the main agendas.

Overall, the North's primary goal is to secure economic aid amid the socially unsettling impact of a recently implemented currency reform aimed at reducing both inflation and the black market, on top of the continuing UN-led economic sanctions. Mr Kim also needs China to support the choice of his youngest son as his heir, to bring some semblance of legitimacy to the appointment, analysts said. China wants to use the occasion to prod the North Korean leader to announce concrete dates for returning to nuclear disarmament talks, which would boost China's role as an international dispute mediator, analysts say. Beijing also wants to make sure that it is not left out in the cold as North Korea and the US move closer towards each other in their bilateral negotiations, sidelining China.

Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University in Seoul, said: "It's also good for China, not the US, to ask North Korea to return to the nuclear talks because China is the host to the nuclear talks. North Korea doesn't have to feel that it is doing so under US pressure." Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst on North Korea at the Sejong Institute, a Seoul-based think tank, was more cautious, citing the health of the aged leader, who suffered a stroke in 2008. "Even if Kim Jong Il's personal physician accompanies the trip, it may not be an easy decision for North Korea to make," he said.

Mr Kim has made six trips to China, the first being in 1983 and the last in 2006, usually staying for a week at a time. Analysts also raise doubts about what the two leaders will be able to accomplish at the rare summit. "When you visit someone's house, you need to bring a gift with you. The gift China wants from the North Korean leader is his public announcement in Beijing to return to the nuclear talks," Mr Cheong said.

That, according to Mr Cheong, would be a "face-losing" task for North Korea because it has demanded the easing of economic sanctions as a precondition to return to the nuclear talks. "If North Korea declares an immediate return to the nuclear talks when the sanctions are still imposed, it will lose face," he said. North Korea is therefore likely to first seek direct negotiations with the US to lift the sanctions before talks with China, where it would announce an immediate return to nuclear talks in Beijing, Mr Cheong said.

A statement on Tuesday by the North Korean ambassador supported this view. In a rare press conference, Choe Jin Su told reporters in Beijing that the country will not return to the six-country nuclear talks unless the US first lifts sanctions and agrees to the North's demand of signing a peace treaty, Japan's Kyodo News reported. Mr Cheong said the widespread publicity surrounding Mr Kim's imminent visit to China may make him feel uncertain about his safety.

In January 2006, during Mr Kim's last trip to China, Japan's NTV was able to capture Mr Kim on camera when he was arriving at a hotel in a southern Chinese city. Enraged, Mr Kim reportedly lodged a strong protest to his Chinese hosts, saying, "If a camera can film me, that means an assassin can shoot me as well. What if it was a gun, not a camera that was aimed at me?" @Email:[e-mail]