SYDNEY // Australian scientists have reported a rapid expansion of the world's tropical zones, a potentially disastrous change that would bring severe drought and higher temperatures.
The scientists warn that global warming is helping to drive a southwards drift of warm and humid conditions that could fundamentally alter the climate of the entire Australian continent, about half of which sits in the tropics.
"There is a consensus that the tropics have expanded in the order of five per cent in the last 25 years," said Steve Turton, a professor at the school of earth and environmental sciences at James Cook University in Cairns, who has documented the swift advance of the tropical region after reviewing more than 70 international scientific papers on the subject.
"That expansion has been a few hundred metres vertically but more importantly there has been a displacement towards the poles anywhere between 300 and 500km in both hemispheres."
The tropics are home to half the world's population and the lion's share - about 80 per cent - of its biodiversity, much of it flourishing in the rainforests and coral reefs.
The growth of the equatorial area that lies between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn is likely to result in more rainfall in northern parts of Australia but drier conditions further south.
"Some of the biggest effects of the expansion of the tropics are not actually going to be in the tropics," said Mr Turton.
"In particular the Mediterranean climates, which dominate parts of southern Australia, appear to be contracting and they are also very important for biodiversity."
Mediterranean environments feature moderate temperatures and dry, hot summers due to subtropical high pressure systems, which are growing and pushing warmer conditions further south.
"We are seeing these kinds of changes occurring already," said Mr Turton, who said Australia's south-western corner has experienced declining rainfall since the mid-1970s.
Researchers at James Cook University have suggested that significant drying will accelerate between 2030 and 2050 but believe that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would prevent some of the worst effects.
The scientists also believe that the impact of a shifting tropical belt would not only trigger more droughts but would also increase the incidence of mosquito-borne viruses.
"The expansion of tropical diseases is, without doubt, one of the greatest threats to humanity," Mr Turton said.
A major concern for public health officials is the potential encroachment into the southern parts of Australia of dengue fever, which is endemic to the tropics.
It thrives in warm and moist conditions, while bio-security consultants have warned that the disease could eventually penetrate as far south as New Zealand.
"Dengue fever is the key risk," cautioned Phil Freeman from the Australian Conservation Foundation.
"It can incapacitate a healthy person for many weeks and for kids and the elderly it is particularly dangerous."
"The southward spread could have some big economic costs on our health system. You've also got to think of the disruption to our key industries, including tourism.
"It may be that fewer tourists want to come to a destination where tropical diseases are a risk and also for the broader workforce with losses in productivity if many workers are incapacitated," Mr Freeman added.
Unique flora and fauna in the tropics could also succumb to the effects of a shifting climate.
In the hot, damp mountain ranges of Queensland's north-east coast, a Unesco World Heritage-listed strip of rainforest gives life to an abundance of species.
Their finely balanced world is threatened by climatic upheaval, which could ultimately condemn many plants and animals to extinction.
"We are concerned that we will get a shorter, wetter wet season possibly with an increase in the intensity of cyclones, which have a big impact on the structure of the rainforests but then we'll have a longer dry season and, in turn, that will challenge the ability of rainforests to persist year round," said Andrew McLean, executive director of the Wet Tropics Management Authority in Cairns.
"There is a species called the lemuroid ringtail possum that lives in the hills behind Cairns and it has in recent years become very rare and our concern is that it is an indication of the possible risk of climate change in our part of the world," he added.
As government and campaigners prepare for talks to agree on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen later this year, activists in Australia have demanded sweeping measures to protect the tropics and other vulnerable areas from man-made pollution.
"We know Australia is right in the firing line of climate change and as a nation we have probably more to lose than any other wealthy country," said Mr Freeman.
"So, if we don't get a global deal it is clear that Australia has much to lose and could be in big, big trouble."
pmercer@thenational.ae
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Why does a queen bee feast only on royal jelly?
Some facts about bees:
The queen bee eats only royal jelly, an extraordinary food created by worker bees so she lives much longer
The life cycle of a worker bee is from 40-60 days
A queen bee lives for 3-5 years
This allows her to lay millions of eggs and allows the continuity of the bee colony
About 20,000 honey bees and one queen populate each hive
Honey is packed with vital vitamins, minerals, enzymes, water and anti-oxidants.
Apart from honey, five other products are royal jelly, the special food bees feed their queen
Pollen is their protein source, a super food that is nutritious, rich in amino acids
Beewax is used to construct the combs. Due to its anti-fungal, anti-bacterial elements, it is used in skin treatments
Propolis, a resin-like material produced by bees is used to make hives. It has natural antibiotic qualities so works to sterilize hive, protects from disease, keeps their home free from germs. Also used to treat sores, infection, warts
Bee venom is used by bees to protect themselves. Has anti-inflammatory properties, sometimes used to relieve conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, nerve and muscle pain
Honey, royal jelly, pollen have health enhancing qualities
The other three products are used for therapeutic purposes
Is beekeeping dangerous?
As long as you deal with bees gently, you will be safe, says Mohammed Al Najeh, who has worked with bees since he was a boy.
“The biggest mistake people make is they panic when they see a bee. They are small but smart creatures. If you move your hand quickly to hit the bees, this is an aggressive action and bees will defend themselves. They can sense the adrenalin in our body. But if we are calm, they are move away.”
