BEIJING // When the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, arrives at the World Expo tomorrow in Shanghai, he is likely to dwell for a moment in his country's pavilion to enjoy the images of Persepolis, a 2,500-year-old historical site, and maybe swell with pride at the huge photographs of chemical plants and aircraft factories plastered on the pavilion walls.
Of more significance during his visit to China, however, will be the likely discussion over Iran's nuclear programme. China's foreign ministry has not confirmed that any talks are scheduled, but the question many will be seeking to answer is whether, when it comes to further sanctions against the Islamic republic, it will be Tehran's or Washington's tune that Beijing chooses to dance to. "It's very hard for China to step forward, to make clear statements on the Iran crisis, because it does not want to offend Iran seriously. China does not think it can benefit from strong condemnation and sanctions against Iran," said Ding Xueling, a professor of social science at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, who has studied China's overseas relations for more than a decade.
Trade between China and Iran reached US$27 billion (Dh99bn) in 2008, and the world's most populous nation is now the biggest supplier of heavy machinery to the Islamic republic. In the other direction, Iran plays a vital role in ensuring China's energy security, and was ranked third last year in the list of oil suppliers to China's fast-growing and energy-hungry economy. In the past year, China has signed multibillion-dollar deals to develop Iranian natural gas fields and expand its oil refineries.
Dong Lisheng, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, said that while China "wants to be co-operative" with other major powers, with respect to Iran, it "has its own interests", which he said extended beyond oil to major construction projects. "China wants to maintain good relations with the Islamic world." Although China has supported previous rounds of sanctions against Tehran and yesterday voted in favour of the fourth round, measures with the potential to seriously disrupt Iran's oil and gas exports have always been removed, leaving limited restrictions mainly related to trade in nuclear materials.
The only way the West will get anything significantly stronger out of Beijing in the future, according to Mr Ding, is if it offers "very, very solid" incentives to China of a kind it has not yet seemed willing to give. For example, he suggested Washington would have to take a much tougher line with Taiwan, which China sees as part of its territory. Also, Mr Ding said major western powers would have to promise to distance themselves from the Dalai Lama, who Barack Obama, the US president, met in February and Nicolas Sarkozy, the president of France, another permanent UN Security Council member, met in December 2008. "Otherwise Beijing will not run the risk of offending Tehran. If Washington wants China to say strong words against Iran, Washington has to provide a lot of things in return."
dbardsley@thenational.ae