Polls close in south Sudan independence referendum



JUBA // South Sudan's polling centres closed their doors on Saturday after a week-long vote on independence from the north that could end a vicious cycle of civil war with the creation of the world's newest state.

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, leading a mission observing the vote, said turnout could reach 90 percent and that it seemed likely the south had voted for independence.

Exhausted polling staff processed a straggle of voters on the final day in the southern capital Juba. Some officials were so tired they were sleeping behind their dusty stalls.

"I feel relieved as this is what we've been fighting for 21 years," said southerner Ayen Deng. "We're waiting for the official results but we will be celebrating tonight."

Final results are due before Feb. 15 but could be announced as early as the beginning of next month. "Of course there will be independence, we can smell it," said Santino Riek.

The vote caps a 2005 peace agreement that ended decades of civil war between the mostly Muslim north and the south, where most follow Christianity and traditional beliefs.

Northern officials have appeared increasingly resigned to losing the oil-producing south -- which makes up a quarter of the country's land -- allaying fears conflict could reignite.

HIGH TURNOUT

Carter, leading one of the largest observation missions, told reporters in Khartoum a handful of centres had reported 100 percent turnout and were already tallying the results.

"We already know that in the south there's been about an average of 90 percent (participation) from the stations we've observed and I think they are representative," Carter said.

In the few centres where he had seen counting under way, he said, the votes "were practically unanimous in favour of separation with only a few ballots to the contrary.

"It's highly likely that the referendum result will be in favour of separation," Carter said, but added that no one should prejudge the outcome.

At least 60 percent of registered voters needed to take part for the result to be binding. That point was reached just four days into the vote, according to the organising commission.

Carter also said the vote had probably met international standards and Khartoum said it would recognise the result, meaning all southerners must do now is wait to celebrate their independence day, likely on July 9.

The former U.S. president played down threats of popular protests in the north following the vote.

"My hope is that the opposition parties in the north will be brought into consultations with President (Omar Hassan al-) Bashir's party and that they will prepare for modifications for the constitution," he said.

Students clashed with police in Khartoum and two northern towns on Wednesday and Thursday in protests over rising prices, part of an economic crisis that has been exacerbated by fears of the impact of losing the south.

Southern independence campaigners have described the vote as a chance to throw off decades of perceived northern repression.

Bashir said in a speech in Khartoum state that neither the north nor Muslims had ever oppressed the south, but rather the divisions were the legacy of the ex-colonial power, Britain.

"The south has been a burden on Sudan from independence until today," he said on state television.

More than 182,000 exiled southerners have returned to the south since the end of October, according to U.N. figures, many of them fearing repercussions in the north after the vote.

South Sudan's government believes that figure could rise to as much as half a million by the beginning of July, said the U.N.'s deputy humanitarian coordinator in Sudan, Lise Grande.

"Services are already overstretched. With more people coming back there will be tremendous pressures on agencies," she said.

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Born: near Sialkot, Pakistan, 1981

Profession: Driver

Family: wife, son (11), daughter (8)

Favourite drink: chai karak

Favourite place in Dubai: The neighbourhood of Khawaneej. “When I see the old houses over there, near the date palms, I can be reminded of my old times. If I don’t go down I cannot recall my old times.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

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“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Install an air filter in your home.

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Shower or bath after being outside.

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Liverpool 4 (Salah (pen 4, 33', & pen 88', Van Dijk (20')

Leeds United 3 (Harrison 12', Bamford 30', Klich 66')

Man of the match Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)

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