Instability in Russia makes Putin more dangerous to West, says Borrell

Baltic States raise concerns of Wagner infiltration via Belarus

From left: European Council President Charles Michel, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and European Commission Show more

The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell warned on Thursday that the recent aborted mutiny by Russian PMC Wagner Group has made the country’s President Vladimir Putin more dangerous to his Western neighbours.

“It’s clear that Putin [comes] out of this crisis weakened, but a weaker Putin is a greater danger,” Mr Borrell said ahead of a two-day summit of the bloc’s 27 leaders in Brussels.

“Putin will be in a cleaning mode internally, and a more assertive mode,” added Mr Borrell, echoing recent reports that Mr Putin has been arresting and otherwise pushing aside figures within the security forces believed to have sided with Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last weekend.

The mercenaries took control of the city of Rostov, near the border with Ukraine, before racing towards Moscow, but turned back after a truce was brokered with the involvement of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

“Putin has lost the monopoly on force, and certainly an unstable Russia becomes a risk,” said Mr Borrell, adding: “Until now, we were looking at Russia as a threat.

"Now, we have to look at Russia as a risk because of internal instability.”

The attempted coup seems to have set alarm bells ringing in the neighbouring Baltic countries. Lithuanian Prime Minister Gitanas Nauseda described Wagner as “serial killers” who could “emerge in Belarus at any moment, and nobody knowns when they could turn against us.”

“We are extremely concerned about the developments in Belarus. Prigozhin is already there – I cannot say it 100 per cent – but it’s very likely that he’s already there.”

“Some colleagues sometimes say that strong Putin is less dangerous than weak Putin. I don’t agree. We have to move forward and be decisive, because now is a crucial moment in history,” Mr Nauseda, who met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Wednesday, said.

Krisjani Karins, Prime Minister of Latvia, shared Mr Nauseda’s concerns, saying that an “unknown number of very trained and skilled fighters” were likely to join Mr Prigozhin in Belarus.

“That does potentially cause a threat,” Mr Karins said. “The threat would probably not be a frontal military threat, but a threat of attempted infiltration into Europe for unknown purposes. So that means that we need to heighten our border awareness and make sure that we can control [them]."

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, addressing the summit of EU leaders – which is largely devoted to the topic of Ukraine – was more cautious.

He said that the Wagner mutiny demonstrated “weaknesses with the Russian system.”

“It’s too early to draw any final conclusions also, because it’s not yet clear how many of the Wagner forces will end up in Belarus and other places,” Mr Stoltenberg said.

EU leaders are expected to endorse security commitments to Ukraine during the two-day gathering, which comes two weeks before many of them travel to Lithuania for a Nato summit that will also focus on the wartorn country.

A draft version of the European Council's conclusions seen by The National on Wednesday said that the EU is “ready to contribute, together with partners, to future security commitments to Ukraine, which will help Ukraine defend itself in the long term, deter acts of aggression and resist destabilisation efforts".

The details of the EU's planned contribution are still to be determined, but a diplomat from the bloc described the wording of the conclusions as a “very strong political message” of support to Ukraine.

“They key point here is long-term military support,” the diplomat said, in contrast to the immediate aid the EU has been delivering to Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion last February.