'Decimated' Russian troops dig in to defend 1,200km front line from counterattack

Putin and Zelenskyy visit key conflict areas as both sides prepare for Ukrainian offensive

A Leopard 2 tank on a training exercise in Germany. Nato tanks could play a major role in Ukraine's expected offensive against a weakened Russian force, a western official has said. AP

Russia’s leading airborne units have been "decimated" by fighting in Ukraine, leaving its forces unable to adequately defend the front line, western officials have disclosed.

A recent BBC Newsnight investigation found that the 331st airborne regiment, of about 600 paratroopers, had lost 94 soldiers since the invasion.

The high casualty rate among Russia’s specialist troops, including the once-feared VDV airborne forces, has increased the possibility of Ukrainian success.

“It’s an apt description that there has been a decimation of those VDV forces and some of the specialist forces,” a western official told The National in a media briefing.

“We don't have exact figures of how many of those remain, but we do have indications that much of the leadership, both the officers, the senior NCOs and junior NCO cadre, which are so key to making a successful unit, are indeed dead or wounded or incapacitated and not participating any more in the conflict.”

Moscow is also thought to be storing up Iranian kamikaze drones to be used against a potential Ukraine breakthrough from a counter-offensive expected this spring.

Equipped with advanced western tanks, including German-made Leopard IIs, and with several months of training, Kyiv seems set to use its modernised army to launch a surprise attack on Russian-occupied territory.

In anticipation of the coming offensive, leaders from both sides visited the front lines, with Russian President Vladimir Putin flying into the Kherson region in only his second visit to occupied Ukraine since ordering the invasion last February.

He handed over a religious icon to troops for Easter celebrations then quickly departed, telling them: “I don’t want to distract you from our duties.”

By contrast President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has visited the front line on numerous occasions, doing so again on Tuesday to the heavily bombarded town of Avdiivka that is close to the besieged area of Bakhmut.

Acting on his generals’ advice, it will ultimately be Mr Zelenskyy’s decision on when and where to order the assault that he hopes will reclaim lost territory.

With its high level of casualties, estimated at more than 100,000, and Mr Putin refusing to declare an official war along with a mass call up of troops, the Russians are finding it difficult to defend the 1,200km front line.

“Their ability to put personnel into those lines is under question at the moment,” the western official said. “They're spread relatively thinly across the lines so there will be opportunity there. You can't put a man in every single trench.”

It would be hard to identify “exactly where the Ukrainians are coming through” and then to manoeuvre a force to counter any breakthrough. “It's going to be difficult for the Russians to sustain the entire length of the line they have at the moment,” the official added.

The Russians, assisted by civilian contractors, have dug a series of deep defensive positions but it whether they have the trained personnel to defend them remains in doubt.

Some mobilised troops received four weeks' training, others only a week and some none at all before being sent to the front line. From a force of 150,000 troops it’s estimated that a mere 10 per cent had been through company-level training.

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure have also faded, proving largely ineffective. But it is understood that a number of Iran Shahed-136 kamikaze drones used in the aerial assault, are being held back.

“There are indications that the Russians are potentially stockpiling some of those attack drones for potential later use as they are particularly concerned about a Ukrainian counterattack,” the western official said.

The key to any breakthrough will be assembling intelligence on Russian positions, pinpointing minefield and machinegun placement, along with rehearsals using combat engineers to breach obstacles, with follow-on forces to exploit the opening. “It's complex warfare,” the official said.