The price of oil has quintupled in less than a decade. The Gulf economies are booming. Governments are piling up huge cash surpluses and looking for places around the world to invest. Despite regional political tensions and a global economic downturn, the Gulf states are riding high. It sounds very much like the Gulf today - but it is also a picture of the Gulf in 1980. Regional observers have seen this movie before, and last time it did not have a happy ending: oil prices collapsed in the mid-1980s, and the Gulf economies suffered a serious contraction. However, there are substantial differences between these booms. If this one comes to an end, the Gulf economies could have a softer landing, but situated in a more contentious political and social atmosphere.
The current boom is driven by oil, just like the first one was. But the private sectors in the Gulf states are now more mature and more globalised than they were during the first boom, and there is good reason to believe that economic growth will be more self-sustaining in the wake of the second boom than it was at the close of the first. Private sector growth in Saudi Arabia has more than kept pace with oil growth during this boom. In the 1970s, government spending accounted for nearly two-thirds of the Saudi GDP; in the 2000s it is closer to one-third. In the 1970s, much of the Gulf's banking was done in Beirut or London. Now there are sophisticated financial institutions throughout the region. Then, the "Dubai model" was an idea in its infancy. Now Dubai is a world centre in trade and services. "Foreign investment" in the Gulf during the 1970s meant service contracts for international energy companies (whose local assets were being nationalized) and international construction companies. Now, every Gulf government is trying to lure international investors into its economy. The petrochemical and natural gas industries are being built by collaborations between state actors, local investors and multinational companies.
Not every Gulf state has gone down this economic road at the same speed. Kuwait lags while the Emirates lead the way. But it is undeniable that the ethos of the 1970s, which was socialist and statist in practice even while the official rhetoric was capitalist, has changed markedly. In the boom of the 2000s, the private sector is a partner, not an appendage. The consequences of this remain to be seen. Will a stronger private sector demand more political rights? There is no indication of that yet. Will a stronger private sector lead the Gulf states into diversified, non-oil based economies? That may be too much to hope for. But a stronger private sector could cushion the transition if oil prices fall.
While economic changes might make the end of the second boom less disruptive, political changes will make it more contentious. The political stability of the Gulf regimes is itself remarkable. Consider that this neighbourhood has witnessed a social revolution (Iran), three major international wars, the overthrow of a regime followed by foreign occupation and civil war (Iraq), the rise of violent Islamist opposition groups and enormous social changes. The Gulf rulers have weathered all of these storms. Oil has given governments the wherewithal to build bureaucratic states, develop their security services, pacify important constituencies (including within the ruling families themselves) and provide services to their populations. Oil is no guarantee of political stability, as the Shah of Iran discovered, but, in large amounts and properly used, it can provide the basis for regime longevity.
This political continuity at the top, however, has not meant stasis. There is now a greater recognition that representative institutions, no matter how symbolic or marginal, are a necessary part of a stable political system. In the first boom, rulers were able to use oil wealth to restrict political participation. Bahrain's parliament was shut down, and Kuwait's saw its power decrease. The other states made no moves on reform. During the present boom, Bahrain has seen a return of parliamentary life (with attendant difficulties and conflicts) and the Kuwaiti parliament has been a thorn in the side of the government, even forcing changes in the electoral system. All of the Gulf states now have representative institutions of one form or another. Even the most conservative have experimented with elections, however limited those experiments have been. The second boom has seen an expansion of participatory politics, and the trend will not be easily reversed, even if the boom comes to an end.
Both booms were built on foreign labour. It doesn't take a rocket scientist, or even a political scientist, to see this. One just has to walk through the streets of any Gulf city to know that boom economies and foreign labour are inextricably linked. In 1970s, more of the foreign labour was Arab: Palestinians in Kuwait, Yemenis in Saudi Arabia, Egyptians and Jordanians and Palestinians in other Gulf states. While numerous expatriate Arabs still work in the Gulf, much larger numbers and much larger percentages of the foreign labour force are now from South and Southeast Asia. Historically, non-Arab labour was seen as less politically troublesome than Arab labour. (Palestinians lost their base in Kuwait and Yemenis were expelled from Saudi Arabia as a result of the Gulf War.) Plus it could be had for smaller wages.
But as South and Southeast Asian economies improve, the wage differential will shrink. As these non-Arab labourers see better opportunities at home, they will be less likely to accept substandard conditions in the Gulf states. The number of strikes and disturbances in the Gulf states over the last few years, most recently in Kuwait last week, signal that Asian labour might not be as docile in the future as it has been in the past. Moreover, as Gulf states and firms integrate more fully into the global economy, labour standards will become a more serious issue for their international partners.
While the second boom is as dependent on foreign labour as the first boom, the social consequences of that dependence are very different. With Gulf populations growing and the youth bulge in those populations pushing more and more school-leavers into the local economies, the problem of citizen unemployment is much more serious now than it was in the 1970s. Gulf leaders have looked to the energised private sector to provide jobs to their citizens, but it is the private sector which relies most heavily on imported labour. Efforts to "citizenise" ("Saudi-ize" "Omani-ize") various sectors of the workforce have been, at best, incomplete successes and at worst complete failures. The biggest socio-political challenge for the Gulf states now, one which they did not face in the 1970s, is ensuring the boom trickles down to young citizens. The political effects of this issue have been exaggerated in some quarters; youth unemployment is not going to bring down regimes. However, the issue has proven almost impervious to substantial improvement, despite the second boom. The first boom ended without an unemployment problem, buffering the negative effects of the downturn that followed. If the second boom ends with high unemployment, the social consequences will be much more serious.
There is no sign that the second boom is anywhere close to finished. The short-sighted might take that as license to ignore the certitude that someday it will end. But the far-sighted will foster real private sector growth, vigorously tackle the youth unemployment problem and develop the customs of dealing with representative political institutions in this period of plenty so that co-operation is well-entrenched for periods of stress in the future. If so, the legacy of the second boom will not just be new buildings, but long term economic, political and social stability.
F Gregory Gause is a professor of political science at the University of Vermont and director of the University's Middle East studies programme.
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier
UAE results
Beat China by 16 runs
Lost to Thailand by 10 wickets
Beat Nepal by five runs
Beat Hong Kong by eight wickets
Beat Malaysia by 34 runs
Standings (P, W, l, NR, points)
1. Thailand 5 4 0 1 9
2. UAE 5 4 1 0 8
3. Nepal 5 2 1 2 6
4. Hong Kong 5 2 2 1 5
5. Malaysia 5 1 4 0 2
6. China 5 0 5 0 0
Final
Thailand v UAE, Monday, 7am
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
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What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
Brief scores:
Manchester City 3
Aguero 1', 44', 61'
Arsenal 1
Koscielny 11'
Man of the match: Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
The%20specs
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Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Real Sociedad v Leganes (midnight)
Saturday
Alaves v Real Valladolid (4pm)
Valencia v Granada (7pm)
Eibar v Real Madrid (9.30pm)
Barcelona v Celta Vigo (midnight)
Sunday
Real Mallorca v Villarreal (3pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Levante (5pm)
Atletico Madrid v Espanyol (7pm)
Getafe v Osasuna (9.30pm)
Real Betis v Sevilla (midnight)
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
Dubai World Cup Carnival Card:
6.30pm: Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.40pm: Zabeel Turf Listed $175,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Cape Verdi Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap $135,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,600m
SPECS
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
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UFC Fight Night 2
1am – Early prelims
2am – Prelims
4am-7am – Main card
7:30am-9am – press cons
The%20Iron%20Claw
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ANATOMY%20OF%20A%20FALL
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Juliet, Naked
Dir: Jesse Peretz
Starring: Chris O'Dowd, Rose Byrne, Ethan Hawke
Two stars
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