More airline passengers may be inclined to keep their seatbelts fastened after 38 people were injured in two recent incidents of air turbulence.
As reported in The National, 31 passengers and a crew member on an Etihad Airways flight from Abu Dhabi to Jakarta were hurt, with 10 taken to hospital, when flight EY474 hit severe turbulence before landing at the Indonesian capital.
Wednesday’s incident came about three weeks after a Thai Airways flight from Jakarta to Bangkok experienced severe turbulence over Singapore, leaving six people hurt.
That both incidents involved flights to or from Jakarta raises the issue of whether parts of the world more often produce turbulence, much like some ocean areas are notoriously rough.
So what is behind incidents like these?
According to a duty forecaster at Dubai International Airport, turbulence is often caused by instability in air around a thunderstorm or air that could produce a thunderstorm. This is often seen as tall cumulonimbus clouds, typically produced in warm and moist unstable air.
“You’re looking at unstable air with up-and-down drafts within it,” he said. “If the aircraft is going through a downdraft, you would feel almost weightless. As soon as [the aeroplane hits] normal air, it would be a very hard bump. Multiply that a lot within a thunderstorm and that’s turbulence. It’s bumpy air.”
There is also clear-air turbulence, caused by the coming together of moving areas of air and not indicated by clouds.
The aircraft will drop when the wings – the movement of air over which generates lift to keep the aeroplane in the air – are no longer producing sufficient lift.
“So temporarily the aircraft loses life and drops, and then recovers, and drops,” said Dr Yongmann Chung, a member of the Turbulence Control Group at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom.
In general, the forecaster said, thunderstorms were more likely in “areas where you have more hot air. If you speak about the Gulf area, you’re more likely to have thunderstorms over the Hajar Mountains”.
“You’re not very easily going to have thunderstorms over Dubai in the summer, but you certainly get them in winter.”
British Airways training captain Steve Allright said that an aircraft moves just a few feet up and down during light turbulence. Moderate turbulence, experienced for much less than 1 per cent of the time a plane is in flight, entails vertical movements of 15 feet or so, while severe turbulence, experienced by Mr Allright for just five minutes or so of his 10,000-hour flying career, involves movements of about 100 feet. As well as changing altitude to avoid mild turbulence, pilots can alter course and fly around areas of instability
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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